Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Braves-Giants, Max Fried, Padres-Marlins)

Breaking down some of the best bets for the MLB action on Wednesday, July 23.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried is an interesting prop target on Wednesday. / Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Looking to bet on the MLB action on Wednesday, July 23?

Wednesday is the sixth straight day of a full 15-game slate in MLB, and there are a ton of matchups that start in the afternoon ahead of most of the league having a travel day on Thursday.

I’m eyeing a few of those matchups for best bets, including a side in the San Francisco Giants-Atlanta Braves series finale.

Then, later in the night, there is an All-Star pitcher that may be worth a look in the prop market in a crucial divisional matchup.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds and an explanation of Wednesday’s best bets. 

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, July 23

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-180) vs. San Francisco Giants
• Max Fried UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100)
• San Diego Padres-Miami Marlins OVER 8 (-106)

Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-180) vs. San Francisco Giants

The Braves have underperformed all season long, but they have a chance to take their early-week series with the Giants on Wednesday afternoon.

In this matchup, the Braves will start righty Spencer Strider (3.59 ERA), who has allowed three or fewer runs in eight straight starts. The righty has led the Braves to just a 4-8 record in his outings this season, but he has a 2.77 ERA while Atlanta is 4-4 over this eight-start stretch.

I think Strider has a massive advantage over Giants starter Justin Verlander, who has struggled in the month of July. Verlander has allowed 23 hits and 14 runs in just 11.2 innings of work, and he’s led the Giants to a 4-12 record overall in his outings in 2025.

San Francisco has also struggled all season on the road, going four games under .500. 

I’m fading Verlander just about every chance I get this season, as his ERA has ballooned to 4.99 ahead of Wednesday’s start. 

Max Fried UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100)

New York Yankees ace Max Fried was forced to exit his last start early due to a blister issue, but he is healthy enough to take the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.

The problem? Fried has not been nearly as effective this month as he’s been all season long, including a start against Toronto where he allowed four runs in six innings of work.

Fried has failed to clear 17.5 outs recorded in two of his outings in July, and he’s posted a 6.43 ERA in the process.

I’m not entirely sold on the lefty being completely over his blister issue, as there were a lot of questions about his timetable to return ahead of the All-Star break. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Yankees ease him back into action, especially since he struggled against the Jays in this last meeting with them. 

San Diego Padres-Miami Marlins OVER 8 (-106)

Miami Marlins righty Sandy Alcantara and San Diego Padres righty Dylan Cease face off on Wednesday afternoon, and I think oddsmakers have set the total in this game far too low.

Alcantara has really struggled in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, posting a 7.14 ERA while allowing four or more runs in 12 of his 19 starts. Not only that, but Alcantara was rocked by San Diego earlier this season, allowing six runs and seven hits in just four innings of work.

On the Padres’ side, Cease has been far from his usual self in 2025. The Padres righty has a 4.64 ERA, and has allowed three or more earned runs in 12 of his 20 starts this season. While Cease does rank in the 71st percentile in expected ERA, it has yet to translate to actual improvement on the mound, as he’s allowed 10 runs and 17 hits across three starts in July.

Alcantara has an expected ERA of 5.10 (which ranks in the 10th percentile), so I’m expecting another rough outing on Wednesday.

So far this season, the OVER has hit in less than half of the games for these teams, but based on this starting pitching matchup, I think eight runs is a little too low.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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