Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Aaron Judge Stays Hot, Fade Patrick Corbin)

Can Aaron Judge clear this prop bet for the sixth consecutive game?
New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge.
New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge. / Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Are there better things in the summer than midweek afternoon baseball?

It’s a perfect way to get your betting day started early, and throwing on a game in the background while working is my definition of a positive day. 

With a bunch of afternoon starts on Wednesday, I’m looking to the prop market for a trio of plays after going a perfect 3-0 with yesterday’s MLB prop picks!

Most of the time, I like to target starting pitchers in these props, but Aaron Judge also cuts today’s picks. The New York Yankees slugger continues to hit the cover off the ball in June, and he has some prior success against Minnesota’s starter Chris Paddack in his career.

Outside of Judge, there are a couple of pitchers that I’m looking to fade in their matchups on Wednesday. 

Let’s keep the train rolling with a few more winners!

Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 5

  • Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
  • Jordan Hicks UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-130)
  • Patrick Corbin OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-135)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-120)

Aaron Judge’s batting average has gone from .200 to .293 since May 1, and he’s now up to 21 homers and 49 RBIs on the season while posting a ridiculous 1.084 OPS (1.442 since the start of May). 

Judge has cleared 1.5 total bases in five straight games, picking up multiple hits in four of those contests. He did have a three-game home run streak snapped in this series, but I don’t think we need to rely on a long ball for him to clear this prop. 

In limited at-bats, Judge is hitting .333 against Twins starter Chris Paddack in his career, and I don’t want to fade one of baseball’s best hitters when he’s got it going like this. Now up to 65 hits on the season with 12 multi-hit games since May 1, I love the OVER for Judge in his total bases prop. 

Jordan Hicks UNDER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-130)

San Francisco Giants starter Jordan Hicks has pitched well this season – his first full season as a starter – posting a 2.70 ERA in 12 starts.

Hicks is set at 15.5 outs recorded at DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday, but I’m not sold on him pitching deep into this game given his recent usage. 

Across 12 starts, Hicks has cleared 5.0 innings pitched just four times, including just one time since the start of May. He went 5.1 innings in his last outing against the New York Yankees. 

Prior to that, the Giants had limited Hicks to five or fewer innings in five straight starts. 

Despite allowing just one hit to the Arizona Diamondbacks (today’s opponent) earlier this season, Hicks was lifted after five frames as well. Since Hicks has never thrown this many innings in a season in his career, the Giants may be looking to limit how much they use him early in the season.

Hicks has been lifted through five innings in games where he’s thrown 72, 81 and 86 pitches. He did throw 101 in his last start, but it’s the only time all year he’s reached triple-digit pitches thrown. 

I don’t see him getting past the fifth in this one. 

Patrick Corbin OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-135)

This prop may be my favorite of the night, as Washington Nationals lefty Patrick Corbin takes on the New York Mets.

Corbin has struggled in 2024, posting a 5.83 ERA in 12 starts, but it’s his walks prop that caught my eye when analyzing his season-long performance. 

The veteran lefty has walked multiple batters in four straight starts and nine of his 12 outings in 2024. He has yet to face the Mets (17th in walks drawn this season), but Corbin’s control has been shaky with 10 free passes allowed in his last four games. 

The Nationals haven’t had a quick hook with the veteran – he’s thrown six innings in three straight games – so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him clear this prop for a 10th time on Wednesday.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.


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Peter Dewey

PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.