Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Fever-Liberty, Dream-Aces, Napheesa Collier)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Tuesday, July 22.

The New York Liberty are massive favorites on Tuesday. / John Jones-Imagn Images

The WNBA is back!

After an entertaining All-Star break that saw Napheesa Collier put on a show in the All-Star Game, the W returns with five games on Tuesday night as the playoff push is officially one.

Collier and the Minnesota Lynx are heavily favored in their first matchup back from the break, but I’m betting on a player prop for the MVP favorite in her matchup with the Chicago Sky.

In addition to that game, there are four other matchups on Tuesday, all with some playoff implications with several teams fighting for the final few spots: 

• Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
• Indiana Fever at New York Liberty
• Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces
• Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm

For Tuesday’s action, I’m eyeing two player props, one moneyline bet, and a spread pick across four of the five games. So, no matter which matchup you’re looking to bet on, I have you covered.

Let’s start the second half of the WNBA season with a bang on Tuesday! 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 35-43 (-3.42 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 119-117 (+1.05 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 Points (-115)
• Paige Bueckers OVER 17.5 Points (+100)
• Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-142) vs. Atlanta Dream
• New York Liberty -10.5 (-108) vs. Indiana Fever

Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 Points (-115)

The Sky rank 12th in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, and Collier – the MVP favorite – has dominated them in their matchups.

Back on July 6, Collier scored 21 points in a five-point win over the Sky, and she followed that up with a 26-point game on July 12 and a 29-point game on July 14.

The Sky have not had an answer for Collier, who is shooting 16-for-32 from the field (50.0 percent) over her last two matchups against them. 

This season, Collier is averaging a career-high 23.2 points per game, so I’ll gladly take her to hit her season average against one of the worst defenses in the WNBA.

Paige Bueckers OVER 17.5 Points (+100)

First a bet on the MVP favorite, now one for the Rookie of the Year favorite – Paige Bueckers. 

In her lone matchup with the Seattle Storm in the 2025 season, the Dallas Wings guard scored 19 points, and she’s averaging 18.4 points per game while shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 32.8 percent from 3-point range.

Bueckers has been on fire since returning from concussion protocol earlier this season, averaging 20.3 points per game over her last 12 contests.

She’s set right around her season average on Tuesday, and I think Bueckers can go over it as she’s become the No. 1 option in this Dallas offense.

Over her last 12 games, Bueckers is attempting 16.9 shots per game, giving her a terrific floor to clear this prop on July 22. 

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-142) vs. Atlanta Dream

The Las Vegas Aces played .500 ball in their games ahead of the All-Star break, but I’m buying them at home on Tuesday night.

Las Vegas hosts the Atlanta Dream (13-9) in this matchup, but the Dream won’t have All-Star guard Rhyne Howard for the rest of the month due to a knee injury. 

That limits the ceiling of the Dream offense, which ranks fourth in the W in offensive rating this season. 

While the Aces have some pretty bad underlying numbers, ranking ninth in offensive and defensive rating this season, they have gone 6-4 straight up at home.

The Dream, on the other hand, are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and 5-6 straight up on the road. With one of their best players out of the lineup, I think Atlanta struggles in this matchup. 

I still have confidence in A’ja Wilson and the Aces to make a playoff push this season. 

New York Liberty -10.5 (-108) vs. Indiana Fever

The New York Liberty may be getting reigning WNBA Finals MVP Jonquel Jones back on Tuesday night, which would be a major lift against the Indiana Fever.

Indiana has dealt with injuries to star guard Caitlin Clark all season long, and Clark is not expected to play on Tuesday, per Fever head coach Stephanie White.

So, Indiana is a massive underdog on the road against a Liberty team that is 10-2 at Barclays Center this season.

The Liberty and Fever matched up before the break with Clark and Jones both out, and New York dominated, winning by 21 points at home.

While the Fever may be able to keep this game closer than that, I’m not sold on them covering the spread on Tuesday. New York’s “struggles” this season have come since Jones went down with an ankle injury, and if she returns, she makes the Liberty more dynamic on both ends. 

Indiana is just 4-6 when Clark sits this season, and I think it could struggle to keep up with the league’s No. 1 offense with her out on Tuesday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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