Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Sparks, Kelsey Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Tuesday, Aug. 26.

Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is a great prop target on Tuesday night. / Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The battle for the final few playoff spots in the WNBA heats up on Tuesday night, a the No. 6 Seattle Storm face the No. 8 Indiana Fever and the No. 9 Los Angeles Sparks take on a top-five seed in the Phoenix Mercury.

Indiana’s loss on Sunday dropped it all the way to the No. 8 spot, and it could fall further with the Sparks sitting just one game back entering Tuesday’s action.

The injury bug has been the Fever’s toughest opponent this season, and Caitlin Clark headlines several players who have been ruled out against Seattle.

The Storm won on Sunday behind a huge game — and game-winner — from Nneka Ogwumike, and they’d love to build some cushion over Indiana in the standings.

In the nightcap on Tuesday, the Sparks are desperate for a win to get themselves into the top eight in the standings. Can Kelsey Plum and company get it done against MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas and the Mercury? 

With so much at stake on Tuesday, it’s only right we place a couple of best bets!

Here’s where I’m leaning in the WNBA on Aug. 26. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 56-60 (-2.37 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 140-135 (+2.09 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 22.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Phoenix Mercury -4 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Sparks – 0.5 unit

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 22.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell has been on fire as of late, scoring 38, 27, and 26 points in her last three games.

With guard injuries continuing to mount for Indiana, I expect Mitchell to get all the shots – and minutes – that she can handle in this matchup.

The All-Star guard had a 26-point game against Seattle earlier this season, although she shot just 3-for-16 from the field against the Storm in their last meeting. Still, Mitchell is averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 45.4 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from 3.

She’s also scored 23 or more points in nine of her last 14 games (since the All-Star break), averaging 23.3 points per game during that stretch.

I expect her to continue to score at a high level, especially if she pushes 20 shot attempts. Since the break, Mitchell is taking 17.9 field goal attempts per game to go with 5.3 free throws per night. 

Phoenix Mercury -4 (-112) vs. Los Angeles Sparks – 0.5 unit

Over the last 10 games, the Sparks have the worst defensive rating in the WNBA, and it makes them a tough team to trust – especially against the playoff-bound Mercury.

Phoenix has just the ninth-best offense in the WNBA over its last 10 games, but it ranks second in the league in defensive rating during that stretch and is fourth overall in defense this season.

The Mercury have also played well on the road, winning 10 of their 18 games outright. The same can’t be said for Los Angeles at home (7-10), although it has turned things around in the second half of the season.

As much as I’d like to take the Sparks to win this game as an underdog, I don’t think their defense is good enough to cover against this Mercury team. 

Phoenix can grind out games when needed, and it should be able to score at will against this weak Los Angeles defense. While the Sparks have won six of their last 10 games, their last three wins have all come by one possession, with two of them coming against an inferior Dallas team.

L.A. is just 15-19-1 against the spread this season, and I think it’s going to struggle against one of the league’s best teams on Tuesday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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