PGA Championship Best Bets Today: Bet Justin Thomas in Round 1 3-Ball Bet vs. Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson

Iain MacMillan | May 15, 2025

Bet on Justin Thomas to finish with a better score than Collin Morikawa in Round 1 of the PGA Championship. / The Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Content

Outright wagers and other full tournament bets are always popular at a major golf tournament, but one of my favorite ways to bet on the sport is with round-by-round bets.

In this article, I'm going to break down my favorite 3-ball bets for Thursday's opening round. These are wagers on which golfer will finish with the lowest round score in the threesome that he’s paired with for that day. Let’s dive into my top plays.

PGA Championship Round 1 3-ball bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Rickie Fowler +250 vs. Koepka/Lowry
• Min Woo Lee +170 vs. Conners/Hojgaard
• Dean Burmester +150 vs. Rodgers/Taylor
• Justin Thomas +140 vs. Morikawa/Johnson

Rickie Fowler +250 vs. Koepka/Lowry

Rickie Fowler is flying under the radar this week. Outside of Rory McIlroy, Fowler has some of the best history in the field at Quail Hollow. He won the 2012 Wells Fargo Championship here, finished T5 at the 2017 PGA Championship, and has posted a total of five top-six finishes in his career at this course.

Meanwhile, Shane Lowry has a horrific history here, never finishing better than T34 in six starts, likely due to his lack of distance off the tee. With Brooks Koepka, he’s coming into this event in poor form, and his short game has been erratic at best. He hasn’t finished better than T18 in his last three starts on LIV and missed the cut at the Masters.

Fowler is worth a shot in this threesome on Thursday at +250.

Min Woo Lee +170 vs. Conners/Hojgaard

I broke down in my betting preview about how I’m on Min Woo Lee at 90-1 to win, so why not take him to beat Corey Conners and Rasmus Hojgaard in the opening round?

Conners is accurate off the tee, but his lack of distance could prevent him from truly contending. He also doesn’t have a great history at majors outside the Masters, and has never finished inside the top 10 at the PGA Championship. Rasmus Hojgaard has the distance to compete this week, but his roller coaster-style results make him hard to bet on. I’ll bank on him having a down round on Thursday.

Dean Burmester +150 vs. Rodgers/Taylor

Dean Burmester is a golfer I’ve been eyeing all week, but he hasn’t fit on my full-tournament card, so I’m going to target him in my round bets instead, starting with an opening round 3-ball bet against Patrick Rodgers and Nick Taylor. He’s fifth in the field in driving distance this week, which means this course fits his style of play well.

He’s paired with Rodgers, who's out of form lately, finishing inside the top 40 just once in his last six starts, and Taylor, who’s one of the shortest drivers in the field this week. Burmester’s length of the tee will give him a significant advantage against his playing partners, and as long as his short game doesn’t implode, he's going to be a great bet at +150.

Justin Thomas +140 vs. Morikawa/Johnson

Justin Thomas is a popular pick this week and for good reason. He won the last PGA Championship that was hosted at Quail Hollow, and his last two starts resulted in a win at the RBC Heritage and a T2 finish at the Truist Championship. His game is peaking at the perfect time as he returns to a comfortable course.

I’m fading both Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson this week. Morikawa is 156th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and has had some questionable form of late, including finishing T54 at the RBC Heritage. I expect Dustin Johnson to be a complete non-factor. He hasn’t sniffed competing at a major championship since joining LIV, including missing the cut at this year’s Masters.

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