PGA Championship First-Round Leader Pick: Jon Rahm Will Start Fast at Quail Hollow

Iain MacMillan | May 14, 2025

Jon Rahm is a great bet to be the first-round leader at the PGA Championship. / Grace Smith-Imagn Images

The PGA Championship is set to begin at Quail Hollow on Thursday, and if you didn’t already know, you don’t always have to wait all four rounds of a golf tournament to find out if you’ve won your bet.

If you want some action for Thursday to make the first round more exciting, consider betting on the first-round leader market. Because there's a lot more variance in a single round, you can get the top golfer at longer odds and you can also bet on some golfers further down the odds list who you may not have confidence in being able to win a four-round tournament, but think they can get off to a hot start.

This week, I’m going to go with the former strategy and bet on one of the top favorites to put together a strong opening round.

PGA Championship First-Round Leader odds

Top 15 odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler +1400
• Rory McIlroy +1400
• Bryson DeChambeau +2000
• Jon Rahm +3000
• Justin Thomas +3300
• Xander Schauffele +3300
• Ludvig Aberg +3500
• Collin Morikawa +3500
• Brooks Koepka +4000
• Joaquin Niemann +4000
• Patrick Cantlay +4500
• Viktor Hovland +4500
• Tyrrell Hatton +5000
• Hideki Matsuyama +5000
• Tommy Fleetwood +5000

PGA Championship First-Round Leader prediction

Quail Hollow is a perfect course fit for Jon Rahm, but I don’t think the Spaniard can put together four rounds good enough to outlast Scheffler, DeChambeau, and McIlroy, so instead I’m going to bet on him to be the first-round leader.

Rahm hasn’t won an event since LIV Chicago last September, but he has been consistent through all of 2025. He has finished T14 or better in eight straight tournaments, including a T7 finish at LIV Korea two weeks ago.

He remains one of the best drivers of the golf ball on planet Earth, ranking fourth in the field in true strokes-gained off the tee over the past six months. That alone should give him a leg up on the competition this week. He also ranks 17th in the field in strokes-gained tee to green in the opening round of tournaments in that time frame.

He's worth a bet at 30-1 to be the Round 1 leader on Thursday.

Pick: Jon Rahm +3000

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!