Pirates vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 10

Can Paul Skenes lead the Pirates to another win?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have won four starts in a row from starting pitcher Paul Skenes. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Paul Skenes is back on the mound on Wednesday night, and he’s looking to snap a four-game skid from the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Pittsburgh has won Skenes’ last four starts, but it has struggled when he’s not on the mound, sitting in last place in the NL Central.

On Wednesday, the Pirates take on another last-place team in the Baltimore Orioles, who are four games under .500 at home in 2025.

Tyler Wells (3.60 ERA) will make his second start of the season for the O’s after returning from injury earlier in the month. Can he outduel Skenes in this matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this battle between two non-playoff teams. 

Pirates vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Pirates -1.5 (+118)
• Orioles +1.5 (-144)

Moneyline

• Pirates: -156
• Orioles: +128

Total

• 7.5 (Over -102/Under -119)

Pirates vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (10-9, 1.98 ERA)
• Baltimore: Tyler Wells (1-0, 3.60 ERA)

Pirates vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Sept. 10
• Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MASN, SportsNet PT
• Pirates record: 64-81
• Orioles record: 67-77

Pirates vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Paul Skenes UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-117)

This season, Skenes has 18 starts with one or fewer earned runs allowed, which is why he has a ridiculous 1.98 ERA in 29 outings. 

Baltimore has struggled on offense in 2025, ranking 20th in runs scored, 22nd in batting average and 15th in OPS, so I would expect another dominant outing from Skenes on Wednesday.

The Pirates star ranks in the 97th percentile in expected ERA and the 90th percentile in expected batting average against. He’s extremely tough to fade, especially after he shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start (six innings, two hits, no runs). 

Pirates vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why bettors should back Skenes on Wednesday:

Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes is on the mound on Wednesday night, as the Pirates have won his last four starts to move to 16-13 in his outings in 2025.

On Wednesday, Skenes will face off with Baltimore Orioles righty Tyler Wells, who is making his second start of the 2025 season since returning from injury. Wells allowed two runs on five hits in 5.0 innings of work in his last outing. 

The Pirates have lost four games in a row, but it’s really hard to bet against Skenes – especially against another last-place team.

Skenes has a 1.98 ERA this season, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 25 of his 29 starts. Even a team as bad as the Pirates has a winning record when he’s on the mound.

Wells pitched pretty well in his 2025 debut, but he only threw 85 pitches. That likely means that the O’s will need to rely on their bullpen (4.46 ERA) a little more in this game. 

Ultimately, this is a bet on Skenes shutting down Baltimore to end this Pittsburgh losing streak. 

Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-156 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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