Pistons vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Players to Watch for NBA Summer League

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Detroit Pistons-Miami Heat matchup in Summer League on Thursday.

The Detroit Pistons and forward Ronald Holland II are favored on Thursday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Detroit Pistons are 2-1 in the Las Vegas Summer League and looking to add to that record on Thursday afternoon when they take on the Miami Heat at 4 p.m. EST.

It’s been an interesting summer for Miami, which also played in the California Classic. Big man Kel’el Ware has struggled at times this summer, and he’s been called out by Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra to work on his professionalism.

On the bright side, Miami’s first-round pick Kasparas Jakučionis has flashed some serious potential in Las Vegas, and he could be a piece for the team in the 2025-26 season. 

As for Detroit, it doesn’t have a top pick to rely on in Summer League, but it still pulled wins against Houston and New York before losing to Minnesota on Tuesday. Ron Holland – the team’s lottery pick from last year’s draft – has shined so far this summer.

Let’s dive into this matchup on Thursday, including the latest odds, players to watch and my prediction.

Pistons vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pistons -4.5 (-110)
• Heat +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Pistons: -192
• Heat: +160

Total

• 180.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pistons vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 17
• Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Cox Pavilion
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV/ESPN+
• Pistons record: 2-1
• Heat record: 1-2

Pistons vs. Heat Key Players to Watch

Detroit Pistons

• Ron Holland II

When it comes to second-year players that are too good for Summer League, Ron Holland is on that list.

The former lottery pick is averaging 21.7 points while shooting 52.8 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from 3 across three games so far this summer. Holland had a big game in a loss to Minnesota, dropping 22 points to lead all Pistons on Tuesday. 

Miami Heat

• Kasparas Jakučionis

A first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Jakučionis is averaging 15.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game over two games in Las Vegas. The rookie had a 24-point showing in a loss to Atlanta, and he could be a potential on-ball option for the Heat this season.

Jakučionis slipped a bit in the 2025 NBA Draft, but Miami has to like what it has seen from the big guard so far this summer. There’s a chance that Jakučionis plays a limited role going forward though, as he’s already sat out one game in Vegas. 

Pistons vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Note: Before betting on NBA Summer League, it’s important to know that rotations are fluid and predicting player performance is volatile. As an avid NBA bettor, I suggest only placing small wagers for fun on these games since they are often hard to predict.

Even though Detroit lost to a loaded Minnesota Timberwolves team on Tuesday, I think it’s the team to back in this matchup.

Miami’s lone win in Las Vegas was a four-point victory over the Boston Celtics, and it still allowed 96 points in that matchup. Detroit has a pair of double-digit wins so far this summer over the New York Knicks and Houston Rockets, and it likely will have the best player on the floor if Holland suits up.

Since the Heat have allowed over 90 points in all three of their games, I have a hard time backing them to cover in this matchup. Miami failed to do so against Atlanta and Cleveland to open its action in Las Vegas, including a 20-point loss to a Cavs team that is just 2-2 this summer. 

Pick: Pistons -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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