Real Madrid vs. Man City Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Champions League Playoff Round

Cem Yolbulan | Feb 18, 2025

IMAGO/Every Second Media

It’s time for the return legs in the Champions League playoff round. Once again, the biggest game on the slate is Real Madrid hosting Manchester City. After earning a massive advantage on the road last week with a 3-2 comeback win, where I had the winning pick, Real Madrid is the overwhelming favorite to go through to the Round of 16. 

One silver lining for Man City as they travel to Santiago Bernabeu is the abolition of the away goals rule in the Champions League. This means that any City victory with a one-goal margin would send the game to extra time. Any win with a larger margin will send Pep Guardiola’s side directly to the next round while a draw will be enough for Madrid. 

Even though Real Madrid secured the win with two late goals in the first leg, they outplayed City throughout the game, except for a 15-minute stretch after Erling Haaland’s goal in the 19th minute. Carlo Ancelotti’s side lost control of the game for a short period before eventually regaining it and creating goal-scoring chances towards the end of the half. 

In typical Guardiola fashion, Man City dominated possession but produced fewer opportunities than their opponents. While City had 1.55 expected goals (xG) on 11 shots, Madrid produced 3.30 xG on 20 shots. There wasn’t a clear goal-scoring chance City missed in the first leg. 

If anything, Man City was lucky to only have lost by one. This allows them to keep their hopes alive for Wednesday. 

They were also able to build some momentum before the big clash as they defeated Newcastle 4-0 on Saturday behind newcomer Omar Marmoush’s hat-trick. Madrid, on the other hand, dropped points for the third straight La Liga game over the weekend after a 1-1 draw at Osasuna. 

Real Madrid is still missing key defenders while City is getting close to full health other than Manuel Akanji and Rodri. 

Can Guardiola pull off an upset, or will the mountain prove to be too high to climb? 

Real Madrid vs. Man City Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. 

To Qualify: 

Real Madrid: -600
Man City: +420

Moneyline:

Real Madrid: -115
Draw: +320
Man City: +260

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -320
Under 2.5: +250

Over 3.5: -116
Under 3.5: -104

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -320
No: +225

Double Chance: 

Man City or Draw: -115

Half-Time Result:

Real Madrid: +125
Draw: +165
Man City: +250

Real Madrid vs. Man City How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, February 19, 2025
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
• How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, Vix, Fubo

Real Madrid vs. Man City Prediction and Pick

Beating Real Madrid on the road, especially when they have a huge one-goal advantage, is a tall task for any team in the world. The Spanish giants are a different beast when it comes to the Champions League. They have won six out of the last 11 competitions and are nearly impossible to beat at Santiago Bernabeu in the knockout stages. 

This version of Real Madrid is particularly difficult to play against when they have the lead. Carlo Ancelotti has mastered the art of defending deep and playing direct soccer. That has gone to another level with the arrival of Kylian Mbappe. 

The Mbappe-Vinicius Jr-Rodrygo frontline has so much speed and athleticism. Combined with the brilliance of Jude Bellingham making runs from the middle, the talent level is unmatched on this team. 

They are especially dangerous against a team taking risks and pushing forward. Manchester City needs goals. Every time City pushes their defensive line up, they will be vulnerable in the back with spaces to be exploited. This is the perfect scenario for the Mbappe and Vinicius duo. 

Manchester City doesn’t have the speed and athleticism defensively to keep up with Madrid’s frontline. In the midfield, they also don’t have the physicality and intensity to match Madrid. 

One advantage they have, however, is the shaky Real Madrid defense. Dani Carvajal, David Alaba, Antonio Rudiger, and Eder Militao are all expected to miss the game. 

This means that Aurelien Tchouameni and Raul Asencio will continue to start as the center backs and Federico Valverde will be the right back. Two players (Valverde and Tchouameni) are playing out of position and one player (Asencio) has minimal high-level experience in the back four. Add the fact that left-back Ferland Mendy is arguably the weakest link on the team overall, and Real Madrid can be hard to trust defensively. 

Still, this is a bad matchup for Manchester City and the most likely scenario is another Real Madrid win in the second leg. 

Pick: Real Madrid (-115)