Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 11

The Red Sox are road favorites with Garrett Crochet on the mound.

The Red Sox are road favorites with Garrett Crochet on the mound. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have the No. 2 wild card spot in the American League at the moment, and they have a crucial matchup with the Houston Astros on Monday night.

This series could have a ton of impact on the AL playoff race, as the Astros have just a half-game lead on the Seattle Mariners in the AL West, while Seattle is a game up on Boston in the wild card.

Depending upon how this series goes, there’s a chance Houston could fall to the No. 2 wild card while Boston takes the top spot and Seattle takes the AL West lead. So, both teams should be extremely motivated to start things off on the right foot on Monday night.

Luckily for Boston, it has All-Star Garrett Crochet (2.24 ERA) on the mound against Cristian Javier, who is making his first start of the 2025 season.

Javier has missed the last 14 months after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market, and my prediction for Monday’s series opener. 

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox -1.5 (+104)
• Astros +1.5 (-126)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: -175
• Astros: +143

Total

• 7.5 (Over -102/Under -119)

Red Sox vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Garrett Crochet (13-4, 2.24 ERA)
• Houston: Cristian Javier (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 11
• Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): SCHN, NESN
• Red Sox record: 65-54
• Astros record: 66-52

Red Sox vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Garrett Crochet OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-105)

While the Astros are allowing fewer than eight Ks per game against them, I think Crochet is one of the few pitchers in baseball who can register a major number against them.

The Red Sox lefty ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage this season, and he’s punched out at least eight batters in 14 of his 23 starts. In his last outing, he picked up eight K’s against a Kansas City Royals team that is averaging just 6.89 strikeouts per night. 

So far in 2025, Crochet has 183 Ks in 148.1 innings of work. He’s worth a look to clear this prop since he’s averaging over 11 punchouts per nine innings in 2025. 

Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I’m trusting Crochet and the Sox to pick up a win on the road: 

Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Boston Red Sox on Monday as they look to gain some ground back in the AL East after losing to the San Diego Padres on Sunday.

Crochet has a 2.24 ERA this season, and he’s led Boston to wins in 16 of his 23 starts. Not only that, but the lefty has not dropped a single start since late June (he’s won six in a row), helping the Sox move into a wild card spot in the AL in the process.

On Monday, he’ll take on a Houston Astros team that is 5-5 in its last 10 games and clinging to a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.

Houston is starting Cristian Javier in this game – his first appearance of the 2025 season. Last season, Javier had a 3.89 ERA in seven starts, but he posted a 4.56 ERA in 31 outings in the 2023 season. 

While I don’t love laying a major number on the moneyline on the road, Boston has been nothing short of excellent when Crochet is on the mound.

The lefty has just three starts all season long where he’s allowed more than two earned runs, and I expect the Sox offense (third in runs, seventh in OPS over the last 15 days) to stay hot against a starter making his season debut. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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