Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Rangers-D-Backs, Red Sox-Astros, Padres-Giants)

Breaking down some of the best bets for the MLB action on Monday, Aug. 11.

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has led the team to a 12-7 record in his outings this season. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Monday’s MLB action features 22 of the league’s 30 teams, but that’s not going to stop us from placing some wagers on the day’s action.

The race for the playoffs is on in both the AL and the NL, as the Cincinnati Reds are just 1.5 games back of the No. 3 wild card spot in the NL and the Cleveland Guardians are just a half game out of the final wild card spot in the AL.

Cleveland isn’t in action on Monday, but the Reds could gain some ground with a win since the New York Mets are also off tonight.

I’m targeting three plays for Monday’s action, including picks for two AL wild card contenders in the Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers. 

Let’s examine the latest odds and my reasoning behind each of these MLB best bets. 

MLB Best Bets for Monday, Aug. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Texas Rangers Moneyline (-164) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
• Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-175) vs. Houston Astros
• San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-143) vs. San Diego Padres

Texas Rangers Moneyline (-164) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Nathan Eovaldi has been lights out for the Texas Rangers this season, and I think he’s a great pitcher to back on Monday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

Arizona has won three games in a row, but its moves at the deadline suggest that the team isn’t exactly looking to compete for a playoff spot in a loaded National League. Ryne Nelston (tonight’s starter) has been solid in 2025, posting a 3.20 ERA, but his advanced numbers are suspect.

Nelson has an expected ERA of 4.05 (43rd percentile) and an expected batting average against of .257 (34th percentile). 

Not only that, but the D-Backs have one of the worst bullpens in MLB (4.86 ERA), which could come back to bite them in the late innings.

Eovaldi has led the Rangers to a 12-7 record in his outings, and he’s allowed just two earned runs and 22 hits over his last 38.2 innings of work (0.47 ERA). He’s a must bet at home, where the Rangers are 36-24 this season. 

Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-175) vs. Houston Astros

Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Boston Red Sox on Monday as they look to gain some ground back in the AL East after losing to the San Diego Padres on Sunday.

Crochet has a 2.24 ERA this season, and he’s led Boston to wins in 16 of his 23 starts. Not only that, but the lefty has not dropped a single start since late June (he’s won six in a row), helping the Sox move into a wild card spot in the AL in the process.

On Monday, he’ll take on a Houston Astros team that is 5-5 in its last 10 games and clinging to a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.

Houston is starting Cristian Javier in this game – his first appearance of the 2025 season. Last season, Javier had a 3.89 ERA in seven starts, but he posted a 4.56 ERA in 31 outings in the 2023 season. 

While I don’t love laying a major number on the moneyline on the road, Boston has been nothing short of excellent when Crochet is on the mound.

The lefty has just three starts all season long where he’s allowed more than two earned runs, and I expect the Sox offense (third in runs, seventh in OPS over the last 15 days) to stay hot against a starter making his season debut. 

San Francisco Giants Moneyline (-143) vs. San Diego Padres

The San Francisco Giants are just 59-59 this season and falling out of the playoff picture in the National League heading into Monday’s matchup with the San Diego Padres.

San Diego is just two games out of first place in the NL West, and it has righty Yu Darvish on the mound in this game as he tries to turn around a slow start to his 2025 season.

Darvish has made just six starts in 2025, posting a 6.51 ERA, allowing three or more runs in four of his six outings. The Padres are 3-3 in those games, and they’re set as road dogs on Monday night.

I have a hard time trusting Darvish in this outing, especially since Logan Webb (3.24 ERA) is on the mound for San Francisco. The Giants are just 12-12 in Webb’s starts, but the righty has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 24 outings in the 2025 season.

At home, I think the Giants are worth a look in this matchup, as Webb tossed eight scoreless innings against the Padres his last time out against them. San Diego ranks 22nd in OPS and 23rd in runs scored this season, so I’m not sold on it putting up a big enough number if Darvish struggles again on Monday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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