Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 12

The Astros are slight favorites at home on Tuesday night.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Dustin May is an interesting prop target on Tuesday. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox dropped their series opener with the Houston Astros, as ace Garrett Crochet had a rare rough outing, allowing five runs in four innings of work. 

Now, the Sox are set as underdogs on Tuesday night, as Dustin May (4.93 ERA) will make his second start with the franchise after being acquired in a deadline deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Houston will counter with Spencer Arrighetti (7.43 ERA), who is making just his fourth start in the 2025 season. 

Monday’s win gave Houston a one-game lead over the Seattle Mariners (who were off on Monday) in the AL West, but that could all change if Houston loses on Tuesday.

Let’s break down the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this battle between two playoff contenders in the AL. 

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox -1.5 (+160)
• Astros +1.5 (-197)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: -102
• Astros: -119

Total

• 8 (Over -119/Under -102)

Red Sox vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Dustin May (6-8, 4.93 ERA)
• Houston: Spencer Arrighetti (1-2, 7.43 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 12
• Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): SCHN, NESN
• Red Sox record: 65-55
• Astros record: 67-52

Red Sox vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Dustin May 2+ Walks Allowed (+115)

This season, May ranks in just the 30th percentile in walk percentage, and he’s allowed multiple walks in 14 of his 20 outings.

May only walked one batter in 3.2 innings in his Red Sox debut, but he still has 44 walks in 107.2 innings of work. 

Houston hasn’t done a great job of working walks – 25th in MLB – but this is too juicy of a number to pass up with May set at plus money for a line he’s hit in 70 percent of his starts. If he can pitch a little deeper into Tuesday’s game, he’s worth a look in this market. 

Red Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why the total is worth targeting in Game 2 of this series: 

Tuesday’s pitching matchup between the Red Sox and Astros features Boston newcomer Dustin May (4.93 ERA) and Astros youngster Spencer Arrighetti (7.43 ERA).

This will be Arrighetti’s fourth appearance of the 2025 season, and he’s allowed five runs in back-to-back outings, including his last appearance where he gave up 11 hits in just 3.2 innings of work.

That’s not a great sign for Houston, as the Red Sox are sixth in batting average, fifth in OPS and third in runs scored over the last 15 days.

However, the Astros aren’t far behind, ranking fifth in batting average, eighth in OPS and 10th in runs scored during that stretch.

I expect them to be able to get to May, who has seen his ERA skyrocket after a strong start to the season. In his first start with Boston, May allowed six hits and three runs in just 3.2 innings of work in a 7-3 loss. 

After posting a 1.06 ERA in his first three outings of the season, May has a 5.66 ERA since and ranks in the 18th percentile overall in expected ERA this season.

These offenses should have a field day against these struggling starters on Tuesday night. 

Pick: OVER 8 (-119 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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