Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, Sept. 5

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Boston Red Sox-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup on Friday night.

Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story is a great prop target on Friday. / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox are in the mix for the AL East crown entering this weekend, and they have a chance to pick up some ground with the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees facing off. 

Boston is set as a road favorite in the odds at the best betting sites against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday night.

Payton Tolle (3.38 ERA) will look to build on a strong MLB debut where he allowed just three hits and two runs in 5.1 innings in a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’ll take on a former Red Sox starter – lefty Eduardo Rodriguez – who has a 5.40 ERA in the 2025 season.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction on Friday. 

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox -1.5 (+123)
• Diamondbacks +1.5 (-149)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: -136
• Diamondbacks: +112

Total

• 9 (Over -102/Under -119)

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Payton Tolle (0-0, 3.38 ERA)
• Arizona: Eduardo Rodriguez (6-8, 5.40 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 5
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Field
• How to Watch (TV): ARID, NESN
• Red Sox record: 78-63
• Diamondbacks record: 70-71 

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Trevor Story to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Looking for a long shot prop on Friday? In SI Betting’s Daily Dinger column, I broke down why Story is a steal in this matchup: 

Story is looking to build on a strong 2025 campaign for Boston on Friday, as the Sox hit the road to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Eduardo Rodriguez is on the mound for Arizona in this one, and he’s posted a 5.40 ERA this season while allowing 21 homers in 24 outings. Not only that, but Rodriguez has a weak bullpen behind him, as the D-Backs are 26th in bullpen ERA (4.65) and have allowed 60 homers in the 2025 campaign.

This sets up well for Story, who has homered 23 times in 2025, including six long balls and a .757 OPS against left-handed pitching. He’s also crushed Rodriguez in his career, going 5-for-10 (.500) with a pair of doubles and 1.245 OPS. 

While he’s never homered against the lefty, he has shown that he can hit him with relative ease.

At +550, Story is worth a dart throw on Friday night. He’s homered four times over the last two weeks and has a .304 batting average over the last seven days. 

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

This is a no-brainer bet on Boston in this matchup. 

Tolle only has one MLB start under his belt, but he pitched well, and I think he has the advantage over Rodriguez, who has struggled all 2025 long. 

Rodriguez has 11 starts with four or more runs allowed in the 2025 season, and he’s now taking on a Boston offense that is fourth in batting average and fifth in OPS against left-handed pitching.

On top of that, the D-Backs have a weak bullpen (26th in bullpen ERA) backing up E-Rod in this game.

As long as Tolle can turn in a similar performance to his debut, the Sox should roll on the road. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-136 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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