Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 25

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Boston Red Sox-Baltimore Orioles matchup on Monday night.

Boston Red Sox first baseman Nathaniel Lowe is a solid prop target on Monday. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have moved into the top wild card spot in the American League after taking three of their four games against the New York Yankees over the weekend. 

Now, Boston faces another AL East opponent – the Baltimore Orioles – in yet another four-game set. 

Baltimore is in last place in the division and well out of the playoff picture, but it has won six out of its last 10 games, including a win on Sunday over the Houston Astros.

Can the O’s play spoiler to a Boston team that needs every win it can get to hold on to the top wild card spot in the AL?

Tomoyuki Sugano (3.97 ERA) will look to make that happen for the Rays as he takes on Brennan Bernardino (2.93 ERA) in this series finale.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this AL East battle. 

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox -1.5 (+140)
• Orioles +1.5 (-171)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: -121
• Orioles: +100

Total

• 9.5 (Over -1-5/Under -116)

Red Sox vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Brennan Bernardino (4-2, 2.93 ERA)
• Baltimore: Tomoyuki Sugano (10-5, 3.97 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Aug. 25
• Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): MASN, NESN
• Red Sox record: 71-60
• Orioles record: 60-70

Red Sox vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+475)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why the Red Sox newcomer is a great bet to stay hot on Monday: 

Since joining the Boston Red Sox, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe has been on fire.

The left-handed hitting slugger has appeared in six games for the Sox and is hitting .438 with a 1.250 OPS and three extra-base hits (including one homer).

He has a great matchup on Monday night against the Baltimore Orioles and right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 21 homers in 24 appearances this season while posting a 3.97 ERA.

While Sugano’s ERA looks solid, he actually ranks in the fifth percentile in expected ERA (5.63) and the third percentile in expected batting average against (.298) this season, per Statcast. 

This is a great spot for Lowe, who has homered 15 times against right-handed pitching this season, to continue his strong start in Boston. 

Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The Orioles are somehow 16-8 in Sugano’s starts this season despite his terrible underlying numbers (which I mentioned above), but I can’t back Baltimore in this matchup.

The Red Sox are one of the best offensive teams in MLB this season, ranking fourth in runs scored, fifth in OPS, and fifth in batting average. Not only does Boston have a major advantage at the dish (Baltimore is 17th, 16th, and 21st in those categories), but I think it has an advantage on the bump tonight as well.

Sugano is due to a bad outing based on his underlying metrics, and the Sox are rolling with a bullpen game – which has been a strong point of their roster – on Monday.

Bernardino will get the start, but Boston has a 3.41 bullpen ERA, which ranks third-best in MLB. 

Plus, the O’s are an under .500 team at home, so I’m not jumping to bet on them to win against a likely playoff-bound Boston squad.

At this short price, the Sox are worth a bet to bounce back from Sunday’s loss in New York. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-121 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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