Red Sox vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 8

The Padres are favored at home on Friday night.

San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta has led the team to a 14-8 record in 22 outings this season. / Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Both the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres have won eight of their last 10 games, and both squads are making a push for first place in their respective divisions heading into Friday night’s matchup.

Ironically, the two teams ahead of Boston and San Diego – Toronto and the Los Angeles Dodgers – are facing off this weekend as well. 

So, there’s a chance for some ground to be made up in either the AL East or NL West. 

A former Red Sox starter will get the ball for San Diego in this one, as Nick Pivetta (2.73 ERA) looks to continue what has been an insanely impressive 2025 season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will counter with Walker Buehler – a former Dodger – who has seen this Padres lineup many times before.

Which team has the edge in Friday’s matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for tonight’s series opener. 

Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-149)
• Padres -1.5 (+123)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: +140
• Padres: -171

Total

• 8 (Over -108/Under -113)

Red Sox vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Walker Buehler (6-6, 5.74 ERA)
• San Diego: Nick Pivetta (11-3, 2.73 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Aug. 8
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA, NESN
• Red Sox record: 64-52
• Padres record: 64-51

Red Sox vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Ryan O’Hearn to Hit a Home Run (+550)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why O’Hearn is a solid long shot bet to go deep:

A former Oriole, San Diego Padres trade deadline acquisition Ryan O’Hearn is a decent long shot bet to leave the yard on Friday night.

The Padres are hosting the Boston Red Sox, who will have veteran right-hander Walker Buehler on the mound. This season, Buehler has a 5.74 ERA, and he’s allowed 19 home runs in 19 appearances.

O’Hearn has fared well against Buehler in limited at bats, hitting .500 (2-for-4) with one double and one walk.

Plus, O’Hearn is much more effective against right-handed pitching, posting a .285 batting average this season while smacking 13 of his 14 homers. He’s a solid bet at this price. 

Red Sox vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Sometimes the right play is the simple play, and I believe that’s the case on Friday night in San Diego.

The Padres are elite at home this season (36-19), and they’re sending one of their best starters to the mound against one of Boston’s worst.

Pivetta has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 19 of his 22 starts this season, and the righty has led San Diego to a 14-8 record in those games. On top of that, his advanced numbers hold up, as he ranks in the 660th percentile or better in both expected ERA (3.72) and expected batting average against (.233).

Meanwhile, Buehler has an actual ERA of 5.74 and an expected ERA of 5.55 – which ranks in the seventh percentile amongst MLB pitchers. His expected batting average against is also in the seventh percentile (.288) and he’s allowed three or more runs in nine of his last 10 starts.

Boston is 11-8 with Buehler on the mound, but he’s not going to outduel Pivetta in San Diego. 

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-171 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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