Red Sox vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Sunday, Aug. 10

The Red Sox are underdogs on Sunday afternoon.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello is an interesting prop target on Sunday. / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres are both in the mix for playoff spots heading into their series finale on Sunday night. 

Boston is turning to righty Brayan Bello (3.03 ERA) in this matchup against San Diego’s Dylan Cease (4.60 ERA).

These teams have split the first two games of their series, and both are within striking distance of their division leaders, as Boston is three games back of Toronto and San Diego is three games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Sunday’s contest. 

Red Sox vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-183)
• Padres -1.5 (+149)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: +122
• Padres: -148

Total

• 7.5 (Over -111/Under -109)

Red Sox vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Brayan Bello (8-5, 3.03 ERA)
• San Diego: Dylan Cease (4-10, 4.60 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 10
• Time: 4:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA, NESN
• Red Sox record: 65-53
• Padres record: 65-52

Red Sox vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Red Sox Best MLB Prop Bet

• Brayan Bello UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)

This season, Bello has just six starts where he failed to reach four strikeouts, but this is a perfect matchup to fade him in.

The Padres are third in MLB in K’s per game, averaging less than seven per night, and Bello’s advanced numbers show that he’s far from an elite strikeout pitcher.

The Red Sox righty ranks in the 14th percentile in whiff percentage and the 21st percentile in strikeout percentage this season, averaging a career-low 6.8 K’s per nine innings. 

I like the value of the +105 odds for him to fall short of this number on Sunday afternoon. 

Red Sox vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB bets – Walk-Off Wagers – why Boston is a sneaky underdog bet on Sunday:

The Red Sox are road underdogs in their series finale against the Padres, but they may be in a prime spot to pull off an upset.

Brayan Bello is on the mound for Boston in this game, and he’s been lights out over his last 12 starts, posting a 2.61 ERA while allowing just 63 hits in 76.0 innings of work.

While Boston is .500 in those outings, Bello has not allowed more than three runs in a single start since mid-May.

On the other side, the Padres have Dylan Cease (4.60 ERA) on the mound. Cease has been great at times in 2025, but he also has allowed four or more runs in five of his last 11 outings while posting a 4.53 ERA overall.

These teams are both in the top five in runs scored over the last 15 days, but I lean with Boston to pull off the upset here. 

The Sox are 5-2 in Bello’s starts since the beginning of July. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+122 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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