Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 21

The Phillies are favored with Zack Wheeler on the mound on Monday.

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has led the team to a 13-6 record in 19 starts this season. / David Frerker-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have won eight of their last 10 games and are tied for the second wild card spot in the American League heading into a huge series against the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies.

After losing to the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, the Phils have just a half-game lead on the New York Mets in the division, but they are favored at home on Monday night.

A major reason why is Philly’s starting pitcher in this game, ace Zack Wheeler. The All-Star enters Monday’s action with a 2.36 ERA, and he’s by far the superior starter in this matchup with Walker Buehler (6.12 ERA) on the mound for Boston.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this series opener on July 21. 

Red Sox vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
• Phillies -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Red Sox: +176
• Phillies: -218

Total

• 8.5 (Over -106/Under -115)

Red Sox vs. Phillies Probable Pitchers

• Boston: Walker Buehler (6-6, 6.12 ERA)
• Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (9-3, 2.36 ERA)

Red Sox vs. Phillies How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 21
• Time: 6:45 p.m. EST
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• How to Watch (TV): NBCS-PH, NESN
• Red Sox record: 54-47
• Phillies record: 56-43

Red Sox vs. Phillies Best MLB Prop Bets

Phillies Best MLB Prop Bet

• Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+245)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Schwarber will continue to stay hot out of the All-Star break: 

Schwarber won MLB’s All-Star Game MVP after dominating a swing-off, and he’s been a home-run machine all season long.

The Philadelphia Phillies slugger has 32 home runs in the 2025 season, and he’s hitting .364 with two home runs in three games since the break.

Schwarber has been great against both righties and lefties, hitting 18 homers against right-handed pitching (with an .855 OPS) and 14 homers against lefties (with a 1.092 OPS).

On Monday, he’ll take on the Boston Red Sox and righty Walker Buehler, who enters this start with a 6.12 ERA and 17 home runs allowed in 16 starts this season. Buehler has an 8.62 ERA and has allowed nine home runs in seven starts since June 1.

In his career against Buehler, Schwarber is 2-for-8 with a home run. 

Red Sox vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Boston has been rolling as of late, but Wheeler has just one start since June 1 where he’s allowed more than one earned run.

That gives the Phillies a massive advantage in this game, as Buehler has an ERA pushing 9.00 since that time and has allowed at least three runs in eight consecutive starts. The former Dodger has not fared well in Boston, posting a brutal 1.56 WHIP.

These are two of the better offenses in MLB, but Wheeler has been lights out all season long, leading the Phillies to a 13-6 record in his 19 starts. Philly has won 10 of those 13 games by two or more runs.

Don’t overthink this matchup, even with Boston playing some of the best baseball it has all season. The Phillies should roll on Monday night.

Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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