Road to 272 Bets: NFL Week 3 Picks for Every Game

The 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets continues this week as Iain MacMillan bets on every single NFL regular season game.

The Road to 272 Bets Continues in Week 3. / Daniel Jones Michael Hickey/Getty Images, Patrick Mahomes: Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images, Breece Hall: Brad Penner-Imagn Images, Alvin Kamara: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The 2025 edition of the Road to 272 Bets has gotten off to a rough start. Back-to-back losing weeks due to losing bets on Monday Night Football, but we know this journey isn't for the faint of heart. I'm confident in my process as we move forward into the Week 3 slate.

As always, I'll follow the rules I laid out last week. Let's dive into my Week 3 plays.

If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.

Road to 272 Bets Week 2 Record

• 7-9 (-1.64 units)

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

• 13-18-1 (-5.17 units)

NFL Week 3 Best Bets for Every Game

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction

I have defended the Dolphins so far this season, and just as I was about to jump off the Miami train, the betting market went ahead and made them massive underdogs in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. I think the Bills deserve to be double-digit favorites, but a spread of 13 is a bit too far in my opinion.

Let's take a look at some positives. The Dolphins have been able to run the ball successfully, ranking fourth in Rush EPA and ninth in Rush Success Rate while averaging 5.1 yards per carry, the fourth-best average so far. Now, they get to face a bad Bills run defense that has allowed 6.8 yards per carry so far this season.

Despite the first couple of ugly losses, the Dolphins rank higher in Net Yards per Play than you'd think. At -0.2, they rank 18th in the league in that stat, one spot below the Commanders and two spots above the Vikings.

There's enough there in the underlying numbers that I have no choice but to take all these points with the Dolphins.

Pick: Dolphins +13 (-108)

Packers vs. Browns Prediction

The more I watch the Packers, the more I think they might just be the best team in the NFL. They lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play (+2.4) through the first two weeks, +0.4 more than the next best team. They're also fifth in the league in EPA and fifth in opponent EPA. This is all while having one of the most difficult starts to the season, facing the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders in their first two games.

Now, they get to finally face a bad team, and this could end up being a blowout win. The Browns' offense has looked bad with Joe Flacco, and he's now 29th in the league in EPA+CPOE Composite. They have no offensive ability to keep pace with Jordan Love and Co. I won't hesitate to lay the number on Green Bay.

Pick: Packers -8.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction

The Houston Texans' offense has looked downright bad through the first two weeks, but we can give Nick Caley a little bit of slack in his first two games as an offensive coordinator. What I really like about this Texans team is their defense, which has largely smothered two great passing offenses in the Rams and the Buccaneers. Now, they get to face a Jaguars' offense that has some questions in its passing game, both with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback and Brian Thomas Jr. at wide receiver.

I'll back the Texans are slight underdogs to get their first win of the season.

Pick: Texans -101

Bengals vs. Vikings Prediction

Note: This bet was placed before the J.J. McCarthy injury news broke. I still like the Bengals at the new number of +3.5.

I continue to be out on the Minnesota Vikings, and things will look worse with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Their banged-up offensive line is going to cause problems for Wentz, who doesn't have the mobility that McCarthy has to help avoid the rush.. Their defense has played solid "bend but don't break" offense, but they've allowed 5.2 yards per carry through the first two weeks. Run defense was a strength of theirs last year, but it's been a weakness so far in 2025. Their plethora of injuries at several positions, including the offensive line, could be too much for them to overcome.

People are low on the Cincinnati Bengals due to the Joe Burrow injury, but I think the step down from Burrow to Jake Browning isn't as significant as some people think. People forget that when Burrow went down in 2023, Browning went 4-3 as a starter, including completing 70.4% of his passes for a quarterback rating of 98.4 and a QBR of 60.1.

I have faith in Browning. Give me the points with the Bengals.

Pick: Bengals +4.5 (-118) via DraftKings

Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction

Falcons fans, myself included, had high hopes for this team this season, but it was largely based on their offense, which is loaded with weapons. What Falcons fans didn't expect was for their defense to be as strong as they are. They benefited from some injuries to the Vikings' offensive line on Sunday night, but they now lead the league in opponent EPA per Play (-0.131), rank fourth in opponent success rate, and have already racked up seven sacks. Their defensive rookies have been electric, and there was a lot to like from this team on Sunday night.

The Panthers, in the Bryce Young era, have had some level of success against the Falcons due to Young having time in the pocket to scramble, roll out, and buy time with his legs. The Falcons' newfound pass rush won't allow that to happen.

This Panthers team has not looked good through the first two weeks, and Young has regressed back to the version that was benched last season. The Falcons might run away with the win in this divisional matchup.

Pick: Falcons -3.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Rams vs. Eagles Prediction

My "Rams offense is going to be bad this season" take is hanging on by a thread. I'm not quite ready to say I was wrong, but if they put up another good offensive performance against this Eagles' defense, I'm going to have to eat my words. I'm going to back my preseason take at least one more time by backing the Eagles to win and cover in this game.

The Eagles' offensive line will be able to keep the Rams' pass rush in check, and I have faith in believing Philadelphia will continue to find success on the ground. Let's ride with the defending champs.

Pick: Eagles -4.5 (-104) vs. Rams via FanDuel

Raiders vs. Commanders Prediction

Note: This bet was placed before the Jayden Daniels' injury news was released. I still recommend betting the Raiders on the new point spread if Daniels is officially sidelined.

I came into this season believing the Washington Commanders would regress this season, and I haven't seen anything in the first two weeks that has convinced me otherwise. It's only a two-game sample size, but Jayden Daniels has had a less-than-stellar start to the season, ranking amongst the bottom of the league in advanced metrics, an area he thrived last year.

uhhhhh, Jayden? pic.twitter.com/AdzPuvqkzh

— Iain MacMillan (@IainMacBets) September 15, 2025

With that being said, if he's kept out of this game due to the injury he suffered in Week 2, the Commanders are in an even worse spot. Daniels dragged them to their record last season, and they have few, if any, remaining qualities to win with margin if it's Marcus Mariota at quarterback.

While I still think the Commanders are the better team, we're talking about a point spread in this situation, and six points (or three if Daniels remains out) is a bit too long in my opinion. Geno Smith has a high floor, and the Raiders' defense could cause some issues for Washington. There's enough there with the Raiders for me to take the points with them as underdogs.

Pick: Raiders +6 (-110)

Jets vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have completely shut down the run game of the first two teams they faced. They have allowed their first two opponents to gain just 3.3 yards per carry, and now they get to face a Jets' offense that has run the ball on 55.05% of their plays through their first two games. If the Jets have to try to gain yards by going through the air, they're going to be in a lot of trouble with Justin Fields at quarterback.

This game is a stylistic dream for the Buccaneers, so I won't hesitate to back them as 7-point favorites.

Pick: Buccaneers -7 (-120) via DraftKings

Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction

If the first two weeks are any indication of how this season will go for the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots, the defenses for both teams could be a real problem. The Steelers rank 29th in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.3 yards per snap, and the Patriots have been even worse, ranking 31st in opponent yards per play (6.6). The two teams also rank 24th and 26th in opponent EPA per play.

With that in mind, I think the only choice in this game is to bet the OVER 44.

Pick: Steelers/Patriots OVER 44 (-110)

Colts vs. Titans Prediction

I rode the Titans to my detriment the entire 2024 season when they eventually finished with the worst against-the-spread record in NFL betting history. Now, I'm two weeks into riding with them again, convinced this team is better than the betting markets evaluate them. I have now been left with no choice and simply have to jump off the Titans bandwagon. Cam Ward needs time to develop, and the Titans' horrific offensive line isn't doing him any favors.

It might also be time to be convinced the Colts are a good football team. The Colts are second in the NFL in yards per play, averaging 6.5 yards per snap, and one of their first two games was against one of the best defenses in the league, the Denver Broncos. Shane Steichen has built an offense around Daniel Jones that seems to be working.

Sometimes you have to be willing to change your opinions about teams, and I'm doing exactly that here. Give me the Colts to win and cover.

Pick: Colts -3 (-120)

Saints vs. Seahawks Prediction

The betting public is in danger of pushing the "Saints aren't that bad" narrative this week after being within a score of both the Cardinals and 49ers. Don't fall for that trap. The Saints remain one of the worst teams in the entire NFL, and Spencer Rattler ranks 26th amongst all quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE through the first two weeks.

The Saints' defense hasn't been any better either, ranking 22nd in opponent EPA per play and 24th in opponent success rate. Now, they have to go out West to take on a Seahawks team that, while having some problems offensively, has looked extremely sharp on the defensive side of the ball. They may eat Rattler for lunch on Sunday.

Pick: Seahawks -7.5 (+100)

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction

I have issues with the Broncos' offense. They're averaging just 5.1 yards per play, which is 19th in the NFL, and they're in the bottom half of the league in virtually every single advanced metric. Defensively, they looked like the elite unit they were last year in Week 1, but then they were soft against the Indianapolis Colts. If their defense can't bounce back, they certainly don't have the offense to hang with the Chargers.

The Chargers have looked like the more impressive team through the first two weeks this season, so I'm going to ride with what I've seen so far and take the Chargers as 2.5-point favorites on their home field.

Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-110) via Caesars

Cowboys vs. Bears Prediction

Earlier in this article, I broke down why I'm betting the OVER between the Steelers and Patriots, based on how bad their two defenses are. Let's take that reasoning and move it one step further, and you'll have the Cowboys and Bears. They rank 30th and 32nd in opponent yards per play. The Cowboys have given up 6.4 yards per play and allowed a 36-year-old Russell Wilson to throw for 450 yards and three touchdowns against them. Meanwhile, the Bears' defense has given up 7.1 yards per play and let the Lions put up a 50 burger against them.

The Cowboys' offense has looked electric with a healthy Dak Prescott and George Pickens at receiver. The only question mark in this game is the offense for the Bears, but I have enough faith in Caleb Williams that he can move the ball against this Cowboys' secondary.

Pick: Cowboys/Bears OVER 48.5 (-115) via DraftKings

Cardinals vs. 49ers Prediction

Mac Jones looked solid in his first start for the 49ers in place of Brock Purdy. He currently ranks 15th in the league in EPA+CPOE, which is above the likes of Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold. Sure, he's not elite or a top 10 quarterback, but he's good enough to lean on other aspects of the team to get the win.

Before you rush to bet on the Cardinals in this spot, let's remember they played the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers in the first two weeks, which are two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they didn't look ultra-impressive in either of them.

Pick: 49ers -1.5 (+100)

Chiefs vs. Giants Prediction

The Kansas City Chiefs have looked bad in the first two weeks, but let's cut them a bit of slack, considering how their first two opponents were. The Chargers and the Eagles are tough teams to face, and now they get to face the lowly New York Giants. Let's also point out the Chiefs have a Net Yards per Play of +0.5 through the first two games, which is a better mark than they had last season when they went 15-2.

I'm not looking too far into Russell Wilson throwing for 450 yards against the Cowboys. We've seen enough from him the past few years to know that last week's performance was an anomaly. Despite having a far easier schedule to start the season, the Giants' advanced metrics are on par with the Chiefs, while ranking worse in Net Yards per Play at -0.3.

I'll lay the points on the Chiefs in a big bounce back spot on Sunday night.

Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110)

Lions vs. Ravens Prediction

I came into this season with the belief that the Baltimore Ravens are by far the best team in the NFL, and nothing I've seen, including a tough Week 1 loss, has swayed my opinion on that. Their defense came to life in Week 2 against the Browns, and they rank inside the top three in virtually every single offensive metric.

The Lions aren't as bad as they looked in Week 1 against the Packers, but aren't as good as they looked in Week 2 against the Bears. They still have some issues that are going to arise when they face the elite teams in the NFL, and a road game against the Ravens is going to bring a lot of those problems to light for the second time in three weeks.

I'll lay the points on the Ravens on Monday night.

Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-105)

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