Rockies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Colorado Rockies-San Diego Padres matchup on Sept. 11.

San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is a great prop target on Thursday. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The Colorado Rockies have lost five games in a row as they begin a new series on Thursday with the San Diego Padres.

San Diego has lost seven of its last 10 games, and it’s now three games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings. Still, the Padres are firmly in the mix to earn at least a wild card spot in the NL with only a few weeks left in the regular season.

Oddsmakers at the best betting sites have set the Padres as massive favorites at home in this series opener.

McCade Brown (12.54 ERA) will make his second straight start against San Diego, but the Rockies youngster struggled mightily in his first outing against the Padres, failing to make it through two innings.

San Diego will counter with Randy Vasquez (3.91 ERA) on Thursday night.

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this NL West showdown. 

Rockies vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Rockies +1.5 (-102)
• Padres -1.5 (-119)

Moneyline

• Rockies: +196
• Padres: -244

Total

• 8.5 (Over -115/Under -106)

Rockies vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Colorado: McCade Brown (0-3, 12.54 ERA)
• San Diego: Randy Vasquez (4-6, 3.91 ERA)

Rockies vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 11
• Time: 9:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): SDPA, COLR
• Rockies record: 40-106
• Padres record: 79-67

Rockies vs. Padres Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+380)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why I’m backing Tatis in a great matchup on Thursday: 

San Diego Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. appears to be getting hot at the right time, as he’s hitting .280 with a pair of home runs and an .841 OPS over the last week of action.

Tatis is now up to 21 home runs in the 2025 season and he’s hit 17 of those against right-handed pitching.

On Thursday, Tatis has a great matchup against the Colorado Rockies and young righty McCade Brown, who has an ERA of 12.54 in three appearances this season. Brown actually faced the Padres on Sept. 6 and lasted just 1.2 innings after allowing five hits, six runs and one home run.

Tatis was 1-for-2 with a three-run homer off of Brown in that game. I love him to build on that on Thursday night. 

Rockies vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

This game is a no-brainer OVER bet for me given the pitching matchup.

Let’s start with Brown, who has a 12.54 ERA and has given up at least three runs in each of his outings despite never pitching more than 4.0 innings in a single start. 

He was rocked by this San Diego team a week ago in a game that finished with 18 combined runs. Behind Brown, the Rockies have a bullpen with a 5.32 ERA (29th in MLB) that should struggle – even against a subpar Padres offense.

On the Padres’ side, I’m not going to back Vasquez in a game where betting the run line is the only way to get value on San Diego.

Sure, the Padres are 15-9 when Vasquez is on the mound this season, but he ranks in the third percentile in expected ERA (5.85) and the 10th percentile in expected batting average against (.284).

Vasquez also ranks in the first percentile in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage this season. I cannot trust him to shut down any team – even one as bad as the Rockies.

I’ll bet on these teams playing yet another high-scoring game with these starters on the mound. Vasquez allowed three runs (two earned) and eight hits in the Sept. 6 start against Brown and the Rockies. 

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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