Rory McIlroy vs. Patrick Cantlay: U.S. Open Round 4 Matchup Bets

Iain MacMillan | Jun 15, 2024

Aug 13, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay shake hands after their final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

We're in for an exciting final round at the U.S. Open.

Bryson DeChambeau holds the three-stroke lead and is the betting favorite to win his second career major, but there are more ways to bet on the fourth round than wagering on who will win the whole thing.

Additionally, we can place matchup bets, also known as 2-ball bets. These wagers are on a golfer to finish with a lower final round score than the golfer they're paired with. I'm targeting two matchup bets for Sunday's finale, including one of the intriguing showdown between Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay.

Let's dive into them.

All odds listed in this article via DraftKings Sportsbook

U.S. Open Final Round Matchup Bets

• Tony Finau +100 vs. Tyrrell Hatton
• Patrick Cantlay +170 vs. Rory McIlroy

Tony FInau vs. Tyrrell Hatton Prediction

We didn't quite hit our bet fading Tyrrell Hatton in Round 3, but we're going to go back to the well and try to do it again in Round 4. Hatton is gaining the majority of his strokes with his chipping, which isn't sustainable for a four-round tournament and we saw him start to regress on Saturday. Don't be surprised if that continues to happen on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Tony Finau has been gaining 1.47 strokes per round with his irons per tournament, a much better sign for sustained success through Round 4.

At plus-money, I'm going to support that line of thinking and take Finau to beat his playing partner in Hatton.

Patrick Cantlay vs. Rory McIlroy Prediction

Do you think there's a 67.21% chance Rory McIlroy will finish with a lower score than Patrick Cantlay on Sunday? I certainly don't. I won't argue McIlroy won't or can't go lower, but -205 odds is too steep of a price for a golfer who has been inconsistent at majors for a decade.

Cantlay has also been the better ball striker this event, outgaining McIlroy in strokes gained: approach, +1.25 to +1.00 per round. If you ask me who I'd rather take between the better driver and the golfer with the better iron and short game, I'm going to take the latter every single time, especially when they're available at +170 odds.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!