Saint Mary's vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Second Round

Reed Wallach | Mar 22, 2025

Mar 15, 2025; Nashville, TN, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide guard Labaron Philon (0) drives to the basket against the Florida Gators during the second half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s rallied to knock off No. 10 seed Vanderbilt in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. 

The Gaels, who had its hands full with the Commodores, will now face one of the top teams in the SEC in No. 2 seed Alabama, who held off No. 15 seed Robert Morris in the first round. In a battle of one of the fastest teams with one of the slowest, who will prevail? 

Let’s set the table with our betting preview. 

Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Saint Mary’s: +5.5 (-110)
• Alabama: -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Saint Mary’s: +194
• Alabama: -235

Total: 149.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 23rd
• Game Time: 6:10 PM EST
• Venue: Rocket Arena
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Saint Mary’s Record: 29-5
• Alabama Record: 26-8

Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch

Saint Mary’s

Jordan Ross: The sophomore guard helped spark the second half run that led to the Saint Mary’s win, scoring 15 points with three rebounds and three assists to go with three blocks. However, he will be up against it when facing a high octane Alabama offense as his two-way prowess will be tested. 

Alabama 

Mark Sears: The star guard didn’t have his shot falling in the Crimson Tide’s first round win against Robert Morris, but finished with a gaudy 22 points, five rebounds and 10 assists to guide the team to a win. Against an imposing Saint Mary’s defense, can Sears navigate it and get his shot to fall? 

Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

This is as stark of a contrast of styles one can have in a college basketball game with Alabama ranking first adjusted tempo, per KenPom and Saint Mary’s ranking 360th out of 364 teams in the country. 

So, who will prevail in a war of pace? 

I have to side with Alabama given what a middling SEC team in Vanderbilt was able to do to the Gaels in the first round matchup. Saint Mary’s used a late rally to pull away from the Commodores, but the team’s athleticism was on display in that one as the team struggled to settle into the game. 

Further, the Crimson Tide physicality can play a role in this one as the group is top 50 in free throw rate this season. Saint Mary’s is incredibly disciplined, ranking top 20 in opponent free throw rate, but the team is also bottom five in bench minutes. If the team gets into foul trouble against an aggressive Alabama team, it can spell issues for the team over 40 minutes. 

Further, keep an eye on Alabama’s rotation as head coach Nate Oats tried to avoid playing banged up big man Grant Nelson, who is dealing with a knee injury. Nelson ended up closing the game, and looking healthy, in the first round, and his insertion back into the rotation can lift the Crimson Tide’s overall effectiveness up. 

I’ll side with the up-tempo attack pulling away and covering. 

PICK: Alabama -5.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

---

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.