South Florida vs. Miami Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 3

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the South Florida vs. Miami matchup in Week 3 of the college football season.

The Miami Hurricanes and quarterback Carson Beck are favored on Sept. 9. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The South Florida Bulls have passed two tests against ranked opponents so far in the 2025 season, and now they’ll take on No. 5 Miami on Saturday with a chance to move to 3-0.

USF is now No. 18 in the AP Poll after upsetting Florida in Week 2, but oddsmakers have set the Bulls as massive road dogs against Carson Beck and Miami.

Mario Cristobal’s squad picked up an impressive Week 1 win over Notre Dame (by three points), and it had a cupcake game against Bethune-Cookman in Week 2, winning 45-3. 

Beck has played well for the Hurricanes, putting himself back on the map when it comes to the NFL Draft. However, can he avoid a letdown against a South Florida team that has impressed to open 2025?

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Week 3 showdown in Miami. 

South Florida vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• South Florida +17.5 (-110)
• Miami -17.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• South Florida: +575
• Miami: -850

Total

• 56.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

South Florida vs. Miami How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 13
• Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): The CW Network
• South Florida record: 2-0
• Miami record: 2-0

South Florida vs. Miami Key Player to Watch

Carson Beck, Quarterback, Miami

Beck was once projected to be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, but he’s now trying to rebuild his stock with the Hurricanes after a rough 2024 season at Georgia.

The veteran quarterback has passed the test so far, throwing for 472 yards and four scores (no interceptions) in two games while completing an ACC-best 77.8 percent of his passes. Cristobal had a No. 1 overall pick in Cam Ward last season, and it appears Miami is attempting to mold Beck into an NFL talent as well. 

Beck threw for 2025 yards and a pair of scores in the win over Notre Dame, but this is a stingy USF defense that has allowed just 23 points in two games this season. Can Beck shine to help Miami cover this number?

South Florida vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

Miami deserves to be favored in this game at home, but by three scores? I’m not sure that’s giving enough credit to USF, which just beat a former top-25 team out of the SEC in Florida.

The Bulls have relied on their defense, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry and 23 total points in the 2025 season, but this is the toughest test they’ve faced to date.

There isn’t much to take away from Miami dominating Bethune-Cookman, but it did hold Notre Dame to just 3.3 yards per carry and 221 passing yards in Week 1. 

I think the Hurricanes win this game, but I’m not buying them to cover. Since Cristobal took over as the team’s head coach, Miami is just 5-10-1 against the spread as a home favorite, and I think the USF defense is good enough to hang around in this matchup.

The Bulls have been undervalued entering 2025, and I’m not positive that the market has completely adjusted to being one of the best teams in the AAC. 

Pick: South Florida +17.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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