%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20id%3D%22Layer_1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20width%3D%2239px%22%20height%3D%2240px%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%2039%2040%22%20enable-background%3D%22new%200%200%2039%2040%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M38.5%2C7H28.2v26h10.3V7z%22%2F%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20clip-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M26.1%2C25.5c0%2C5.8-4.1%2C7.5-12.9%2C7.5C3.9%2C33%2C0%2C31.2%2C0%2C25.2v-1.1h11.6%0A%09v2.4c0%2C0.7%2C0.1%2C1.4%2C1.2%2C1.4c1%2C0%2C1.2-0.4%2C1.2-1.3v-0.9c0-1.6-0.9-1.6-3.5-2.2C2.2%2C21.7%2C0%2C19.7%2C0%2C15.3v-0.9C0%2C9.3%2C5.5%2C7%2C12.9%2C7%0A%09c10.2%2C0%2C12.8%2C2.6%2C12.8%2C7.4v1.8h-11v-2.9c0-0.6-0.4-1.1-1.2-1.1c-0.6%2C0-1.2%2C0.4-1.2%2C1.1v0.9c0%2C1.5%2C0.9%2C2%2C3.3%2C2.5%0A%09c8%2C1.6%2C10.5%2C3.3%2C10.5%2C7.5V25.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
Sun-Mercury Alyssa Thomas Trade Causes Major Movement to WNBA Championship Odds
The WNBA offseason continues to heat up!
Just two days after the blockbuster Jewell Loyd-Kelsey Plum deal, another All-Star is on the move.
The Connecticut Sun reportedly has traded star forward Alyssa Thomas to the Phoenix Mercury. Thomas, who was given a core designation by the Sun this offseason (meaning she could only be moved in a trade), has finished in the top five in MVP voting in each of the last three seasons.
BREAKING: The Phoenix Mercury are acquiring Alyssa Thomas from the Connecticut Sun, sources told ESPN.
— Alexa Philippou (@alexaphilippou) January 28, 2025
Thomas, a perennial MVP candidate, spent her entire career in CT up to this point. She was cored by the team, meaning she could only leave via tradehttps://t.co/OYtjq224Zl pic.twitter.com/PRNqZeWhKD
The Sun will receive the No. 12 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, guard Natasha Cloud and forward Rebecca Allen in the deal. Connecticut is also sending out Ty Harris with Thomas to Phoenix.
Can confirm Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen and the No. 12 overall pick are headed to Connecticut in return for Alyssa Thomas. Ty Harris is also headed to Phoenix. @howardmegdal first.
— Alexa Philippou (@alexaphilippou) January 28, 2025
Note this trade can't be executed til deals can be signed on Feb. 1https://t.co/OYtjq21x9N
One of the best defenders and playmakers in the WNBA, Thomas could be the key piece for a Mercury team that may lose both Brittney Griner (a free agent) and Dian Taurasi (contemplating retirement) this offseason.
Oddsmakers reacted to the Thomas trade, shifting the odds for both the Sun and the Mercury in the WNBA Finals market.
WNBA Championship Odds Following Alyssa Thomas Trade
- New York Liberty: +200
- Las Vegas Aces: +250
- Minnesota Lynx: +330
- Indiana Fever: +900
- Connecticut Sun: +1900
- Phoenix Mercury: +3000
- Los Angeles Sparks: +4000
- Chicago Sky: +7000
- Atlanta Dream: +7000
- Dallas Wings: +7000
- Seattle Storm: +7000
- Washington Mystics: +10000
- Golden State Valkyries: +18000
There has been some major line movement, especially when it comes to the Sun from when these odds first came out.
Huge WNBA odds movement following the Alyssa Thomas deal:
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) January 28, 2025
Connecticut Sun:
-- Opened +650
-- Moved to +1300 before deal
-- Now sitting at +1900
Phoenix Mercury:
-- Opened +5000
-- Moved to +5500 before deal
-- Now sitting at +3000@SI_Betting https://t.co/L3ZMx7WqJo
Oddsmakers still view Connecticut as a contender, but with Thomas out of the picture, the Sun has to find a new player to build their roster around. CT has made the playoffs in eight straight seasons, reaching the semifinals in six seasons in a row.
As for the Mercury, adding Thomas is the second big move for the franchise since last offseason. Phoenix traded for star guard Kahleah Copper ahead of the 2024 season, and it promptly made the playoffs. However, the Mercury were swept in the first round by the Minnesota Lynx.
Connecticut Sun WNBA Championship Odds Tanking Following Alyssa Thomas Deal
The return for the Sun isn't bad -- but when you consider that they moved on from a top-five MVP candidate -- and that Allen was injured for most of the 2024 season, it isn't great.
Connecticut has been one of the steadier franchises in the WNBA, but it also let go of coach Stephanie White following the 2024 season. So, it’s possible with Thomas now out of the picture that the Sun are looking to enter a rebuilding phase. Cloud is a great player, but CT lacks a true No. 1 option (maybe that will be Marina Mabrey) offensively at the moment -- especially if free agent DeWanna Bonner doesn't re-sign.
It's also worth noting that the Sun traded their first-round pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft last season to the Chicago Sky for Mabrey. So, adding the 12th pick doesn't give Connecticut a massive haul of draft assets.
Phoenix Mercury WNBA Championship Odds See Boost After Alyssa Thomas Trade
The Mercury are positing themselves to make a playoff run in the 2025 season – even if Griner and Taurasi aren’t on the team.
Thomas – a nightly triple-double threat – has proven that she can be the playmaking hub for an elite offense. Now, with Copper in the final season of her deal, the Mercury are making a push to compete for a title.
While their odds are still just the sixth-best in the WNBA and the third-best in the Western Conference, the Thomas trade signals that the Mercury could be more aggressive in free agency/the trade market this offseason.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.