TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

TCU is set as a road underdog as it looks to move to 4-0.

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover is looking to lead his team to an upset win. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs are in the top-25 heading into a major Big 12 matchup with the Arizona State Sun Devils on Friday night.

Arizona State has slipped out of the top-25 after making the College Football Playoff last season, but it could turn around its season with a win at home in Week 5. 

The Sun Devils are favored at home in this matchup, and they’ve rebounded nicely since losing to Mississippi State in Week 2. Arizona State knocked off Baylor by three in Week 4 for its second straight win and third in the 2025 season.

Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs are 3-0 and coming off a double-digit win over SMU in Week 4. TCU dominated North Carolina to open the season, and quarterback Josh Hoover has led one of the more dynamic passing offenses in the country.

Can Arizona State slow TCU down and pick up a major in-conference win?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big 12 matchup. 

TCU vs. Arizona State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• TCU +2.5 (-105)
• Arizona State -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• TCU: +114
• Arizona State: -135

Total

• 54.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

TCU vs. Arizona State How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Sept. 26
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mountain America Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• TCU record: 3-0
• Arizona State record: 3-1

TCU vs. Arizona State Key Player to Watch

Josh Hoover, Quarterback, TCU

Through three appearances this season, Hoover has thrown for 1,000 yards, and he leads Division-I in passing yards per game (333.3) in 2025.

The Horned Frogs quarterback has 11 touchdowns to just two picks in the 2025 season while completing an impressive 68.0 percent of his passes. Hoover is coming off a monster game in TCU’s win over SMU, throwing for 379 yards and five scores to lead the Horned Frogs to an 11-point victory. 

The TCU offense is 16th in the country in pass play success rate, and Hoover is a major reason why. He’ll look to keep things rolling against an Arizona State team that is just 63rd in the country in defensive success rate against the pass. 

TCU vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

This is a pretty even matchup, as these teams rank 54th (TCU) and 56th (Arizona State) in the country in EPA/Play in the 2025 season.

The Sun Devils are hoping to get some better play out of quarterback Sam Leavitt, who has thrown for just 748 yards in the 2025 season to go along with six scores and three picks. While the Sun Devils are 87th in the country in EPA/Play on offense, they are just 89th in pass success rate.

On the other side, TCU is 16th in the country in success rate on passing plays, giving it a major advantage over a lot of teams in the 2025 season. However, the Sun Devils are 39th in the country in EPA/Pass on defense, so they may be able to keep Josh Hoover in check a little on Friday night. 

The Horned Frogs’ weakest part of their team may be their pass defense (allowing 246 yards per game while ranking 113th in defensive EPA/Pass), but I am not sold on Leavitt being able to take advantage of that in this game.

The Sun Devils did pick up a nice win over Baylor, but they’re just 2-2 against the spread and have two other wins against subpar teams in Northern Arizona and Texas State.

I think the Horned Frogs are underrated a bit on the road here, especially since they have one of the better offenses in the country, especially on third and fourth down (third in success rate).

I’ll take the points with the No. 24 team in the country in Week 5. 

Pick: TCU +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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