Texas vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Tuesday, March 4

Iain MacMillan | Mar 3, 2025

Texas is in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns losing to Georgia on the weekend may have destroyed their hopes of making the NCAA Tournament. With that being said, they're dreams aren't completely crushed just quite yet. A win against No. 25 Mississippi State may be enough to get them back in the conversation.

The Bulldogs are coming off a win against LSU and are hoping to improve their seeding for the upcoming SEC Tournament. No matter happens, we're almost guaranteed to see them in the NCAA Tournament.

let's dive into the odds for this SEC showdown.

Texas vs. Mississippi State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas +6.5 (-105)
• Mississippi State -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Texas +230
• Mississippi State -285

Total: 150.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Texas vs. Mississippi State How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, March 4
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
• Texas Record: 16-13 (5-11 Conference)
• Mississippi State Record: 20-9 (8-8 Conference)

Texas vs. Mississippi State Key Players to Watch in Prop Market

Texas Longhorns

Tre Johnson: Tre Johnson ranks 11th in the country in points per game, averaging 20.6, but he's coming off a 12-point performance against Georgia in a heartbreaking loss this past week. They need Johnson to play like he did for most of February if they want any hope of making the NCAA Tournament.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Josh Hubbard: Mississippi State's guard is the most influential player on this game. He's leading the team in points per game with 18.4 but he's also second on the team in assists, averaging 3.3. He put up 30 points in their win against LSU this past week, shooting 50% from the field.

Texas vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

One thing to keep an eye on in this game is the perimeter defense of Texas. 42% of Mississippi State's shots come from beyond the arc and now they face a Texas team that has struggled to defend the perimeter this season. The Longhorns rank 204th in opponent three point field goal percentage, allowing them to shoot 34.2% from three.

Texas has already struggled heavily when playing on the road. The Longhorns' effective field goal percentage drops 7.6% when playing on the road fro 56.1% to 48.5%. As a result, their average scoring margin drops from +14.1 at home to -2.6 on the road.

Those two facts are enough to convince me to lay the points with the Bulldogs on Tuesday night.

Pick: Mississippi State -6.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

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