Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 6

The Thunder are favored to close out the Finals in Game 6.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren is a great prop target in Game 6. / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The Larry O’Brien Trophy is in the building on Thursday night in Indiana, as the Oklahoma City Thunder are just one win away from a title ahead of Game 6. 

The Indiana Pacers are at home with a chance to force a Game 7, but oddsmakers have set them as home underdogs – partially due to the injury to Tyrese Haliburton.

The star guard has been dealing with a calf strain that limited him in Game 5, as he failed to make a shot from the field. Now, the Pacers are six-point underdogs (they opened at +5) against OKC with the season on the line.

Before this series, I picked OKC to win in six games (which was +450 at DraftKings), and there’s a chance that comes true tonight. However, the Thunder are just 1-8 against the spread on the road this postseason, so this could end up being a close game on Thursday.

Will we see a Game 7? Or, will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams complete one of the more dominant seasons in recent NBA history?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction for Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night. 

Thunder vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -6 (-115)
• Pacers +6 (-105)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -250
• Pacers: +205

Total

• 221.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Thunder vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, June 19
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Series: OKC leads 3-2

Thunder vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Jarace Walker – out
• Tyrese Haliburton – questionable

Thunder vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Chet Holmgren OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-120)

In this series, Chet Holmgren has been the primary center for the Thunder with Mark Daigneault opting to go small more often than playing Isaiah Hartenstein.

That’s led to some huge rebounding numbers, as Holmgren has 10 or more boards in each of his last three games in the Finals. Overall this postseason, the Thunder big man is averaging 8.8 boards on 16.4 rebound chances per game.

In the Finals, that has jumped to 9.6 rebounds per game on 17.0 chances. 

As long as OKC continues to play smaller lineups, I love this prop for Chet against a Pacers team that is grabbing just 48.2 percent of available rebounds in the 2024-25 postseason. 

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• TJ McConnell OVER 10.5 Points (-115)

There’s a chance that McConnell has a huge role on Thursday, especially if Haliburton (questionable) sits out or plays limited minutes.

The veteran point guard was massive in Game 5, bringing the Pacers back into the game in the third quarter while finishing with 18 points. 

McConnell has at least eight points in every game in this series and has scored 10 or more three times. Overall, he’s averaging 9.0 points on 7.1 shots per game in the playoffs. I think he’s worth a shot with Haliburton clearly banged up entering Game 6. 

Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Thunder are the team to bet in Game 6: 

I’m sticking to my guns and backing the Thunder to win this series in six games.

OKC has weathered the storm in Game 4 – erasing a double digit deficit – and Game 5 – surviving a Pacers surge in the third quarter – to take back home-court advantage and take its first lead in this best-of-seven series.

While the Pacers deserve a ton of credit for forcing six games in this matchup and playing the Thunder tight in just about every game, I can’t back them with Haliburton at less than 100 percent.

Indiana’s offense is predicated on getting out in transition and Haliburton zipping the ball around, but if he can’t get into the pain – or isn’t confident in his movement – the Pacers are going to stagnate like they did at times in Game 5. 

Even with the huge game from TJ McConnell in OKC, the Pacers still failed to cover a 9.5-point spread, and they’ve actually gone just 6-7-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 2024-25 season.

OKC has covered the spread just one time on the road this postseason (Game 4 of this series), but I think the Thunder are poised to end things tonight.

After a dreadful 3-point shooting performance in Game 4 (which OKC still won and covered), the Thunder bounced back to hit 14 shots from beyond the arc in Game 5. If they can find some middle ground between those numbers, I’m not sold on the Pacers hanging around unless Haliburton looks significantly better than he did on Monday.

Indiana’s turnovers could also be a problem without Haliburton, as there'll be a lot more ball-handling pressure on Andrew Nembhard, who struggled in the fourth quarter of Game 5. 

All season long, the Thunder have been the best team in the NBA, and I think tonight will be a coronation of their all-time season.

Pick: Thunder -6 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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