Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Thunder-Pacers, Pascal Siakam in Game 6)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder.

Can the Thunder win the NBA Finals tonight? / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Could the NBA Finals come to an end on Thursday night?

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 3-2 series lead on the Indiana Pacers, and they’re favored to win Game 6 in Indiana with Tyrese Haliburton (calf) nursing an injury.

Haliburton is officially a game-time decision, but he did not look like himself in Game 5, failing to make a shot from the field and finishing with four points, seven rebounds and six assists in a loss. 

Game 5 was the first time all postseason where the Pacers lost two games in a row, and they’re looking to avoid a third on Thursday to keep their season alive and force a Game 7. 

There’s a chance that multiple of my NBA Finals predictions come true on Thursday night, and they could land some pretty big payout if it happens. 

Prior to the season, I wrote in my preseason column why I bet the Thunder to win the title at +700, and I also sprinkled on the Pacers at +6000. Now, OKC is one game away from cashing that ticket. 

Then, before this series, my official prediction was Oklahoma City in six games, which was +450 at DraftKings at the time. So, tonight could be a huge night if the Thunder come through. But, will I be betting on them to do so? 

I’m eyeing a side in this matchup but I also have a player prop for Pacers forward Pascal Siakam, as he may get all the shots he can handle with Haliburton banged up.

Here’s a breakdown of the best bets for Game 6 of the NBA Finals – potentially the final NBA game of the 2024-25 season. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 278-288-5 (-10.37 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1288-1232-26 (+27.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-115) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

With Halliburton banged up in Game 5, Siakam took on a major role in the Pacers offense, scoring 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field. He knocked down 3-of-6 shots from beyond arc, putting together one of his most efficient games of the playoffs.

While Siakam has taken 15 or fewer shots in every game in this series, I expect him to be even more aggressive on Thursday night. Haliburton is going to be limited if he even plays, and the Pacers need an offensive hub if they’re going to have any chance of staying alive in Game 6. 

Siakam has some big scoring games in these playoffs, as he’s averaging 21.0 points per game and has 11 games (out of 21) with at least 20 points. While he’s going to need 22 to clear this prop, I wouldn't be shocked if Siakam takes closer to 20 shots in a must-win scenario tonight. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-115) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit

I’m sticking to my guns and backing the Thunder to win this series in six games.

OKC has weathered the storm in Game 4 – erasing a double digit deficit – and Game 5 – surviving a Pacers surge in the third quarter – to take back home-court advantage and take its first lead in this best-of-seven series.

While the Pacers deserve a ton of credit for forcing six games in this matchup and playing the Thunder tight in just about every game, I can’t back them with Haliburton at less than 100 percent.

Indiana’s offense is predicated on getting out in transition and Haliburton zipping the ball around, but if he can’t get into the pain – or isn’t confident in his movement – the Pacers are going to stagnate like they did at times in Game 5. 

Even with the huge game from TJ McConnell in OKC, the Pacers still failed to cover a 9.5-point spread, and they’ve actually gone just 6-7-1 ATS as home underdogs in the 2024-25 season.

OKC has covered the spread just one time on the road this postseason (Game 4 of this series), but I think the Thunder are poised to end things tonight.

After a dreadful 3-point shooting performance in Game 4 (which OKC still won and covered), the Thunder bounced back to hit 14 shots from beyond the arc in Game 5. If they can find some middle ground between those numbers, I’m not sold on the Pacers hanging around unless Haliburton looks significantly better than he did on Monday.

Indiana’s turnovers could also be a problem without Haliburton, as there'll be a lot more ball-handling pressure on Andrew Nembhard, who struggled in the fourth quarter of Game 5. 

All season long, the Thunder have been the best team in the NBA, and I think tonight will be a coronation of their all-time season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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