Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 21

The Pirates are favored with Paul Skenes on the mound.

Paul Skenes is a great prop target on Monday. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Paul Skenes will make his first start post-All-Star break on Monday night, and he’s aiming to stop a rough stretch for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates are in dead last in the NL Central, and they’ve dropped nine of their last 10 games, including their first three out of the break, ahead of Monday’s series opener against the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers are coming off a Sunday Night Baseball win behind a gem from Tarik Skubal, and they’re holding a huge advantage in the AL Central standings. 

Veteran Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA) will get the ball against Skenes, and many of the best betting sites have the Pirates favored at home in this contest.

Can they come through and snap their losing streak?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, my favorite prop bet and prediction for Monday’s series opener. 

Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Tigers -1.5 (+176)
• Pirates +1.5 (-217)

Moneyline

• Tigers: +107
• Pirates: -131

Total

• 7 (Over -112/Under -109)

Tigers vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Jack Flaherty (5-9, 4.65 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (4-8, 2.01 ERA)

Tigers vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 21
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, FDSDET
• Tigers record: 60-40
• Pirates record: 39-61

Tigers vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

• Paul Skenes UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-170)

Skenes has allowed at least five hits in three straight starts, but he’s only given up more than 4.5 hits in eight of his 20 outings in the 2025 season.

Even though the Tigers are one of the best teams in baseball this season, they rank just 14th in hits and outside of the top 10 in the league in batting average. So, I’m not totally sold on them putting up a big number against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Skenes has also thrown five or fewer innings in five of his last six starts, which gives opposing offenses way less time to get to him at the dish. I think the UNDER is the play for the Pirates star on Monday. 

Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Monday, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB best bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the UNDER is the play with Paul Skenes on the mound: 

The Pirates have failed to give Paul Skenes enough run support all season long, and that has remained the case in June.

In three starts this month, Skenes has received two total runs of support, and he’s 0-1 over that stretch despite allowing just two earned runs himself. 

In Skenes’ starts this season, Pittsburgh has combined for seven or fewer runs 13 times (in 20 total outings), and I’m expecting a similar result on Monday.

Skenes will take on the Detroit Tigers and Jack Flaherty (4.65 ERA), who are looking to build their lead atop the AL Central. 

Detroit has been one of the better OVER teams in MLB (51-46-3) this season, but I think the UNDER is the bet to make in this matchup.

Not only have the Pirates hit the UNDER at a 57.7 percent clip this season (56-41-3), but they rank last in MLB in runs scored and OPS while posting the 28th-best batting average.

With Skenes on the mound, the Pirates should be able to keep the Tigers in check, as the All-Star starter has allowed more than two earned runs in just three of his 20 starts this season. 

I’ll trust Skenes to keep the Tigers’ offense in check, but I don’t expect him to get enough run support to make the Pirates a worthwhile bet to win this game outright. 

Pick: UNDER 7 (-109 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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