Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 22

Will we see another low-scoring game in this series?

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates knocked off the Detroit Tigers on Monday night behind six shutout innings from ace Paul Skenes, but they are set as home underdogs at many of the best betting sites on Tuesday, July 22.

Pittsburgh will have righty Mitch Keller (3.48 ERA) on the mound in this matchup, but it has failed to get him much run support this season, leading to a 6-14 record in his 20 appearances.

On the Detroit side, All-Star Casey Mize will make his first start of the second half of the season after posting a 3.15 ERA before the break. 

Despite Monday’s loss, the Tigers still hold a 10-game lead in the AL Central. However, they need to continue winning to secure the best record in the American League and potentially in all of baseball this season.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Game 2 of this early-week series. 

Tigers vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Tigers -1.5 (+113)
• Pirates +1.5 (-137)

Moneyline

• Tigers: -149
• Pirates: +123

Total

• 8 (Over -109/Under -111)

Tigers vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

• Detroit: Casey Mize (9-3, 3.15 ERA)
• Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (3-10, 3.48 ERA)

Tigers vs. Pirates How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, July 22
• Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: PNC Park
• How to Watch (TV): SportsNet PT, FDSDET
• Tigers record: 60-41
• Pirates record: 40-61

Tigers vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Casey Mize UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160)

This prop bet will go hand-in-hand with my prediction for this matchup, as I’m fading the Pittsburgh offense on Tuesday.

The Pirates may have won on Monday, but they scored just three runs, and now they have to face an All-Star that has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 16 starts this season.

So far in 2025, Pittsburgh is dead last in OPS, runs scored and a bottom three team in batting average. I don’t see it hanging a big number on Mize in this matchup. 

Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best MLB best column – Walk-Off Wagers – why the UNDER is once again the play in this matchup: 

Skenes and the Pirates shut down the Detroit Tigers on Monday night in a 3-0 win, but I think the tables could turn in terms of which team is shut down on Tuesday night.

Mize has led the Tigers to an impressive 11-5 record in his 16 outings this season, and he enters this start with a 3.15 ERA and a 3.29 expected ERA. 

The Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller (3.48 ERA, 3.82 expected ERA), who has not gotten a ton of run support (sound familiar for a Pirates pitcher?) in 2025. Keller has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 20 starts, yet the Pirates are just 6-14 when he’s on the mound. 

In addition to that, the Pirates have combined for eight or fewer runs in 14 of Keller’s outings, including all three of his starts in the month of July.

Mize should be able to shut down this Pittsburgh offense, which ranks 28th in batting average, 30th in runs scored and 30th in OPS. 

As long as Detroit doesn’t hang a massive number on Keller, I think the UNDER is the play in Game 2 of this series. 

Overall this season, the UNDER has hit in 58.2 percent of the Pirates’ games. 

Pick: UNDER 8 (-111 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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