Travis Kelce Retirement Odds: Betting Market Predicts Chiefs Star's Future

Brian Giuffra | Feb 13, 2025

Oddsmakers are offering a bet on if Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (right) will retire by the NFL Draft. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Shortly after the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl, longtime Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce admitted he’s not sure if he’ll play again next season or retire. 

It didn’t take long for oddsmakers to weigh in either. 

A day after Kelce said, "I’m gonna take some time to figure it out," regarding retirement on his New Heights podcast, FanDuel Canada posted odds on whether he will announce he’s retiring “by April 24, 2025.” That date is very important, as we'll examine below.

Travis Kelce Retirement Odds 

• No: -196
• Yes: +150 

Oddsmakers at FanDuel Canada don’t believe Kelce will announce his retirement by April 24, giving him -196 odds. That date is important because that’s the first round of the NFL Draft. Some assume if Kelce was going to retire, he would tell the Chiefs by then so they could plan to draft his successor.

Nate Taylor of The Athletic reported today the Chiefs have told Kelce they want "a decision around March 14." Kelce is due an $11.5 million roster bonus on March 15 and free agency begins on March 10, so the deadline makes sense for a few reasons.

The Chiefs have a solid backup plan behind Kelce in Noah Gray. The 2021 fifth-round pick had 40 catches for 437 yards and five touchdown catches this year. He signed a three-year, $18 million contract extension before this past season began, locking him in at a modest $7 million cap hit for the next two years. He’s still only 25, with plenty of room to grow in the offense, and showcased he can be a reliable target for Patrick Mahomes already. 

The Chiefs run a lot of two tight end sets. Even if Kelce does play next year, the Chiefs are probably going to draft a TE or sign one in free agency knowing Kelce’s time with the team is coming to an end shortly.

Kelce has no reason to rush this decision. Preseason training camp doesn’t start until July. Kelce could even push his decision into August and still have time to ramp up before the regular season begins in September. That gives him more time to assess his motivation level and drive ratings to his podcast by stringing this out. 

Here’s what Kelce said about retirement on his podcast, co-hosted by his brother Jason Kelce, who retired before last season. 

“I’m gonna take some time to figure it out. And I think I owe it to my teammates that if I do come back that it’s gonna be a wholehearted decision and I’m not half-assing it, and I’m fully here for them.

“I think I can play, it’s just whether or not I’m motivated or it’s the best decision for me as a man, as a human, as a person to take on all that responsibility.”

Kelce's play declined this year but he still posted 97 catches for 823 yards and three touchdowns. That’s his second straight year failing to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards after seven straight years of going over. His speed and route running are diminished, but he still knows how to find holes in the defense. 

Had the Chiefs won the Super Bowl to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight, Kelce would have likely rode off into the sunset. He still might. But it doesn't mean he'll do so by the Chiefs deadline or the sportsbook deadline either.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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