Tua Tagovailoa Benching Causes Massive Shift in Bengals vs. Dolphins Odds for Week 16

Miami is turning to Quinn Ewers in Week 16.

The Miami Dolphins are underdogs in Week 16 after benching quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins are making a quarterback change.

After Miami was eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15 with a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, head coach Mike McDaniel said that everything was on the table going forward with the team's roster. Now, he's turning to seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers over former top-five pick Tua Tagovailoa for Week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

A major move in Miami: the Dolphins are benching QB Tua Tagovailoa and turning to Quinn Ewers as their new starting QB, per sources.

Ewers’ first start comes Sunday vs. the Bengals. pic.twitter.com/lzs2J1EfjP

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 17, 2025

Tagovailoa's benching has caused a massive shift in the betting odds for this game, as Miami opened as a 1.5-point favorite earlier this week. Now, DraftKings has the Dolphins as 4.5-point home underdogs against a Bengals team that is also out of the playoff race in the AFC.

Clearly, oddsmakers are expecting seom growing pains from Ewers in his first start of his career. The former University of Texas star has appeared in one game this season, completing five of his eight passes attempts for 53 yards in a blowout loss to the Cleveland Browns.

Miami's decision to bench Tagovailoa comes after the former top-five pick struggled on Monday night against Pittsburgh. Tua threw his NFL-leading 15th interception in that game, and the Dolphins fell behind in the first half in a cold-weather game and were unable to recover.

While McDaniel is moving on from Tagovailoa this season, it's unclear how the Dolphins will handle the quarterback spot going forward. Tagovailoa has $54 million guaranteed to him next season, and cutting the Universityof Alabama product would cost the team $99 million in dead cap.

So, there's a chance that Tagvoailoa is on Miami's roster next season, even if he isn't the starter.

The numbers game:

Tua Tagovailoa already has $54 million guaranteed to him in 2026.

On March 15, $3M of his 2027 salary becomes guaranteed.

Cutting him would leave $99M in dead money.

Post June 1 cut would equal $67.4M in dead money in 2026, $31.8M in 2027. https://t.co/DowBg5XZCR

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 17, 2025

Overall, Tagovailoa has completed 67.7 percent of his passes this season for 2,660 yards, 20 scores and 15 picks. He's led the Dolphins to just a 6-8 record, and Miami got off to an awful start that led to the firing of general manager Chris Grier.

Tagovailoa has some strong numbers in 2022 and 2023, but he's been injured for a lot of his NFL career and clearly regressed this season. Ewers may not be an upgrade -- the betting market certainly believes he's a downgrade -- but the Dolphins might as well see what they have in the rookie since they're playoff hopes are already done.

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