U.S. Open Score Predictions: How the Top Golfers Will Fare at Pinehurst

Jordan Spieth looked over a shot Monday during practice at the 2024 U.S. Open.
Jordan Spieth looked over a shot Monday during practice at the 2024 U.S. Open. / Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Sports

The golf world will turn its eye to the Pinehurst for this week's U.S. Open, the third men's major on the 2024 golf calendar.

I've already given you my best bets to win in my full betting preview here, but in this article, I'm going to take things one step further. I'm going to attempt to predict not only the winning score but the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

Let's see how close I can get.

All odds listed in this article are via BetMGM Sportsbook

U.S. Open score predictions

Winning score: -5

Martin Kaymer's winning score of 9 under in 2014 was a bit of an anomaly, beating the rest of the field by eight strokes. Michael Campbell won at Pinehurst with a score of even par in 2005 and Payne Stewart won at 1 under par in 1999.

With that being said, I do think the winner is going to be a few strokes under par. The ball striking of the top golfers on the PGA Tour is on a different level this year and while I don't envision a large group of golfers under par, I picture the top two or three golfers battling on Sunday with the winner finishing at 5 under.

Scottie Scheffler (+333) score prediction: -4

At the very least, Scottie Scheffler is going to be in the mix on Sunday. Him not being in the picture in the final round would be the most shocking thing we'd see this weekend. His elite ball striking was even better last week at the Memorial, gaining an eye-popping +3.59 true strokes per round with his irons.

He's the best golfer in the world and it's not even close. He may not win, but he'll be right there at the finish.

Xander Schauffele (+1100) score prediction: -5

Xander Schauffele is the clear second best golfer in the world at the moment and does do some things better than Scheffler, mainly his putting has been stronger, which could play a huge role at Pinehurst. Now that he finally has a major victory, the monkey could be off his back and he has a chance to play freely this week.

Schauffele is my pick to win in a close finish against Scheffler.

Rory McIlroy (+1200) score prediction: +2

In true Rory McIlroy fashion, he'll probably put together three great rounds and one horrific round that pushes him out of contention. He finished T23 here in 2014 and while I expect him to finish further up the leaderboard than that, I've lost any faith that he's going to win another major.

Collin Morikawa (+1400) score prediction: -1

Collin Morikawa has now finished inside the top five in three straight starts and his short game is as good as it's ever been. I think he's going to end a few shots short on Sunday, but I wouldn't argue against anyone who is picking him to win this week. For someone who already has two major victories in his young career, it's surprising to see him fail to be clutch in meaningful Sunday moments.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) score prediction: +5

Bryson DeChambeau has proven at both the Masters and the PGA Championship that he can still compete at major championships, but I don't know if he has the short game to compete at Pinehurst. He'll make the weekend, but I don't foresee him being in contention on Sunday.

Ludvig Aberg (+2000) score prediction: +4

I have concerns about Ludvig Aberg's nagging knee injury, but it didn't seem to bother him last week. With that being said, he's lost strokes around the greens in three of his last five starts. He'll need to chip well to contend at Pinehurst, which is what's keeping me from predicting he'll be in the mix on Sunday.

Viktor Hovland (+2000) score prediction: +6

Speaking of golfers who lose strokes around the green, Viktor Hovland tops that list. His ball-striking numbers have gotten back to peak Hovland, but he continues to struggle with his chipping which is going to cost him in a major way at Pinehurst.

Brooks Koepka (+2200) score prediction: E

Brooks Koepka is coming off a T9 finish at LIV Houston and I have no interest in fading him in a major championship, as I've learned that lesson plenty of times before. Is his game dialed in enough to compete with the likes of Scheffler and Schauffele? I'm not so sure.

Jon Rahm (+3300) score prediction: Missed Cut

Jon Rahm withdrew from last week's LIV Houston which is a bad sign heading into this week. He finished T45 at the Masters and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. I have no faith he can compete this week either. In fact, I think he's going to miss his second cut at a major this season.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300) score prediction: +2

Tommy Fleetwood hasn't been bad lately, but he hasn't been great either in finishing between T13 and T20 over his last four starts. He has no big-time weaknesses in his game but there also isn't any area he struggles in. Therefore, I expect him to have another finish that reflects exactly that. It will be a good-but-not-great tournament for the Englishman.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Iain MacMillan


Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.