U.S. Open First-Round Leader Pick: Bet Shane Lowry to Get Off to Strong Start

Iain MacMillan | Jun 11, 2025

Shane Lowry is a great bet to be the first round leader at the U.S. Open. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

If you don’t have the patience to wait all four rounds to cash a bet at this week’s U.S. Open, or if you just want to make Thursday’s round more exciting, consider getting in on the first-round leader market.

With Oakmont Country Club expected to be a tough challenge, I’m keeping my first-round leader picks to two names near the top of the odds board. Let’s dive into them.

U.S. Open first round leader odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler +1200
• Bryson DeChambeau +2000
• Rory McIlroy +2200
• Jon Rahm +2500
• Xander Schauffele +3000
• Joaquin Niemann +3500
• Collin Moriakwa +3500
• Ludvig Aberg +3500
• Patrick Cantlay +4500
• Tommy Fleetwood +4500
• Sepp Straka +4500
• Shane Lowry +4500
• Justin Thomas +4500
• Brooks Koepka +5000
• Tyrrell Hatton +5000
• Viktor Hovland +5000

U.S. Open first-round leader picks

Scottie Scheffler +1200

I broke down in this week’s SI Golf Betting Panel why I'm not only betting on Scottie Scheffler to win, but also for him to be the first-round leader:

I know it’s not exactly exciting for me to give a First Round Leader pick that’s the same as my outright pick, but I truly believe this is going to be a Scottie Scheffler masterclass that’s going to start on Thursday and end in a multi-stroke win on Sunday. At a course as difficult as Oakmont, Scheffler’s level of play is going to give him a significant advantage on the field.

Shane Lowry +4500

Shane Lowry is sixth in the field this week in total strokes gained in Round 1 over the past three months, and he’s 20th on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average this season at 69.08. He’s also second on the Tour this season in strokes-gained tee to green.

Let’s not forget that Lowry had a four-stroke lead heading into the final round of the U.S. Open the last time it was hosted at Oakmont in 2016, so he knows how to play well on this challenging course.

After a disappointing weekend at the RBC Canadian Open, I don’t trust him to close out a tournament win right now, but I do think he’s a great bet to get off to a hot start on Thursday.

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