U.S. Open Score Predictions: Forecasting the Winning Total at Oakmont Country Club

Predicting the winning score and the final score for the top 10 golfers at this week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club.

Bryson DeChambeau has a chance to win his third career U.S. Open. / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

We have been promised carnage at this week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club. All signs point to this being an extremely challenging track for the best golfers in the world. So much so that some people think we could see a winning score above par.

I’ve already given you my best bets in this week's betting preview, but I’m going to take it a step further in this article. I’m going to give my prediction for what the winning score will be, as well as the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.

U.S. Open score predictions

All odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

U.S. Open winning score prediction: -4

While there’s no question Oakmont will play difficult, there has been a recent trend in the past few years of U.S. Open courses not playing quite as difficult as the pre-tournament reports hype them up to be. It will also likely be playing a touch softer than originally hoped due to some heavy rain this past weekend.

The last time the U.S. Open was hosted here was in 2016 when Dustin Johnson won with a final score of 4 under. The course for the majority of the field as a whole is expected to play more difficult than in 2016, but I’d argue the top golfer this week, Scottie Scheffler, can still reach that 4-under score.

Scottie Scheffler (+280) score prediction: -4

As I wrote in my betting preview, this is Scheffler’s tournament to lose. Not only is he playing at a level that we haven’t seen since Tiger Woods in his prime, but his biggest competitors have taken a step back lately. Rory McIlroy hasn’t been the same since the Masters, Bryson DeChambeau is still figuring out his irons, Xander Schauffele hasn’t returned to his 2024 form since his rib injury, and Jon Rahm, whole consistent, hasn't had his A-plus game yet in 2025.

In what will be the toughest challenge in golf, it’s hard to imagine anyone but the best golfer in the world winning this week. The course will play tougher than 2016, but this year’s version of Scheffler is a better golfer than the 2016 version of Dustin Johnson.

Bryson DeChambeau (+700) score prediction: E

No one is counting out DeChambeau. His style of golf fits perfectly at USGA setups, which is evidenced by his two U.S. Open wins. Unfortunately, Oakmont will exploit any weakness a golfer has, and DeChambeau has struggled with his approach play in 2025. He lost strokes with his approach in a T5 finish at the Masters, and he has yet to have a peak iron performance this season. Oakmont is going to penalize him in a big way if he’s not locked in with those clubs.

Rory McIlroy (+1100) score prediction: Missed Cut

Rory McIlroy hasn’t had his best stuff since winning the Masters, and he admitted he hasn’t had the same motivation since finally achieving his career goal of winning a green jacket. His performance at last week’s RBC Canadian Open was one of the worst of his career, missing the cut while posting a 9-over score.

I’d be shocked if he’s able to turn things around in less than a week, especially now that he’ll be teeing it up at the most difficult course he’ll play this year.

Jon Rahm (+1200) score prediction: -1

I expect Jon Rahm to surprise some people this week. He hasn’t won yet this year, but he’s finished T14 or better in every single start, including at both the Masters and the PGA Championship. He’s a former U.S. Open winner and has the game to compete at a course like Oakmont. I think he’ll be one of the few golfers who will break par this week.

Xander Schauffele (+2200) score prediction: Missed Cut

We have seen some flashes of Xander Schauffele playing as well as he did last season, but he has had some major issues keeping the ball in the fairway. He has finished in the bottom half of the field in driving accuracy in all but one start this season, including at his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament, where he lost strokes off the tee. Golfers simply can’t do that at Oakmont.

Collin Morikawa (+2500) score prediction: +5

Collin Morikawa is one of the most accurate drivers in the world, but his lack of distance off the tee could hurt him at a course as long as Oakmont. He also hasn’t been in his best form of late. He hasn’t finished better than T10 since his solo runner-up finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.

I have no doubt he can make the cut, but I don’t expect him to truly be in contention on the weekend.

Ludvig Aberg (+2500) score prediction: +7

Ludvig Aberg’s form in May was concerning, especially when he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, but he has turned some things around including a T16 finish at the Memorial Tournament and a T13 finish at the Canadian Open.

His game certainly fits Oakmont well, but it’s not peaking at the right time like it has to be to truly contend at the U.S. Open.

Joaquin Niemann (+3000) score prediction: +6

Joaquin Niemann will once again be the popular LIV golfer to bet on this week as handicappers across the internet give his name out as a “dark horse” pick. He got his best career finish at the PGA Championship at T8 but was never truly in contention that week.

He’s coming into this event off a win at LIV Virginia, but until he’s actually in the mix on the weekend, I’m going to sell my stock on Niemann.

Tommy Fleetwood (+4000) score prediction: +4

Tommy Fleetwood is interesting this week. He is still seeking his first win on North American soil, but he’s put together a solid 2025 campaign, including posting three top-10 finishes in his last five starts. It’s also worth noting that the last time the U.S. Open winner finished over par was Brooks Koepka at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Fleetwood was the solo runner-up that year at 1 over. Maybe the tougher the course plays, the better chance Fleetwood has to compete.

Justin Thomas (+4000) score prediction: +8

Even in the weeks that he contends this year, Justin Thomas has had some major issues with his driving accuracy. He’s 121st on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, hitting the fairway just 56.85% of the time. I’m also concerned about his recent form at majors. He finished T36 at the Masters and then missed the cut at the PGA Championship.

I don’t expect much from JT this week.

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