Valero Texas Open Picks, Props, Predictions: Betting Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Patrick Cantlay

SI Golf staff | Apr 2, 2025

Denny McCarthy (left), Jordan Spieth (center) and Daniel Berger (right) are among the picks to win this week at the Valero Texas Open. / Daniel Berger: Andy Lyons/Getty ImagesJordan Spieth: Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty ImagesDenny McCarthy: Brennan Asplen/Getty ImagesBackground: Raj Mehta/Getty Images

The SI Golf betting panel is coming off a monster week at the Houston Open and we're ready to keep it rolling in San Antonio! 

FanSided senior editor Cody Williams hit Min Woo Lee (+3500, FanDuel) outright and Keith Mitchell (+6600, FanDuel) first-round lead in last week's panel. Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner hit his third straight FRL with Taylor Pendrith (+5000, DraftKings) and Matt Vincenzi also hit Min Woo Lee in his betting preview for SI Golf. That was his second straight outright win, though it didn’t come in the panel so it won’t count for his overall record here. Still, he’s on fire. 

Now we’re on to the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. The panel is comprised of Kirschner, Vincenzi, Williams, SI Golf betting insider Iain MacMillan, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction. 

This is the last tuneup before next week's Masters and the panel is looking to stay hot. Kirschner is now up over 130 units on the year while Williams also jumps into the positive thanks to his big week and is now up over 20 units. MacMillan and Giuffra have been the hottest on props but they, like the rest of the betting panel, are down around 20 units overall. 

Of course, that can all change with a big week and an outright winner. Here are our picks for the Valero Texas Open. 

Valero Texas Open Picks / Sports Illustrated

Outright Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Denny McCarthy (+3000, DraftKings)

Denny McCarthy checks every box this week. Past performance at this event is huge and McCarthy finished second here last season, losing to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff. McCarthy also has great approach play and great putting, ranking 27th and 17th on Tour in those two related strokes-gained categories. He’s also posted back-to-back top 20 finishes at signature events. He should be able to take advantage of a much weaker field this week.

Matt Vincenzi: Jordan Spieth (+2500, DraftKings)

I backed Spieth a few weeks back at the Valspar Championship and I see no reason not to go back to him at one of his favorite courses on Tour. At Innisbrook’s Copperhead course, the three-time major champion was excellent with his irons, gaining 7.76 strokes on approach, which was third in the field

John Schwarb: Denny McCarthy (+3000, DraftKings)

No doubt McCarthy has this week circled on his calendar after losing to Akshay Bhatia in a playoff last year. But even without that, his 2025 has been very solid with no missed cuts in eight starts and five finishes of T16 or better. His last appearance was a T14 at the Players so he’s well-rested and ready to avenge last year.

Brian Kirschner: Daniel Berger (+3500, DraftKings)

A Daniel Berger resurgence is certainly taking place in 2025 and I can see him finding the winner's circle for the first time since the 2021 Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Berger has finished top 25 in his last four starts highlighted by T2 at WMPO. I really like that has a comp as they are both risk-reward TPC designs. The Floridian has also won in Texas at Colonial so there is no doubt he can peak in the Lone Star state. 

Cody Williams: Gary Woodland (+5500, FanDuel)

Woodland came up short in Houston after firing a final round 62, but I love where his game is on a course such as this. While Phoenix isn’t a 1-for-1 comparison, I like the demand for tee-to-green play as well as the potential for wind and desert-ish conditions. Woodland was T21 there as well and now has gained 5.0 or more strokes tee-to-green there and in Houston coming into this event. With a T6 and T8 here the last two times he played TPC San Antonio, give me Woodland to stay hot. 

Brian Giuffra: Patrick Cantlay (+1800, FanDuel) 

It’s been three years since Cantlay last won on Tour, but he’s playing outstanding golf this season and seems due for a breakout. With two T5s and a T12 at The Players Championship this season, Cantlay’s been in contention already, but he has to get over his Sunday letdowns to get over the hump. This is his first time playing this tournament and I think not having any battle scars at this course gives him the best opportunity to put together a full week and finally get back in the winner’s circle. 

Longshot Pick

Iain MacMillan: Henrik Norlander (+22000, FanDuel)

If you’re going to give me the guy who ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach at 220-1 odds to win a weak field event, I’m going to take that bet every single time. Obviously, we’re going to need him to have a hot week with his putter, but at those odds, I’m willing to take a risk.

Matt Vincenzi: Mac Meissner (+12000, DraftKings)

Mac Meissner played his college golf at SMU and has strong ties to Texas golf. He currently lives in Dallas and was a three-time All-American for the Mustangs. In the 2020-21 season, Meissner set the SMU record with a stroke average of 70.44. Meissner had a strong ball-striking performance in his most recent start at the Valspar Championship. He gained 7.72 strokes on approach, which ranked fourth in the field.

John Schwarb: Isaiah Salinda (+11000, FanDuel)

The Tour rookie has settled in nicely after missing his first two cuts to start the season, playing every weekend since with his best weeks being a third in Mexico and T11 last week in Houston. At Memorial Park, he was 12th in strokes-gained approach and 25th in putting, two solid stats for taking a flyer at a big price. 

Brian Kirschner: Justin Rose (+8000, DraftKings) 

I think this is a great number for a major champion and former No. 1 player ithe n world. A winner in Texas before, Rose has not shown signs of slowing down. With a T8 at the API and T3 at Pebble Beach, he has shown the potential to pop for a top finish. I think Justin Rose finishes his career with another win and will make a case to play at Bethpage for Europe in the Ryder Cup. 

Cody Williams: Victor Perez (+10000, FanDuel)

Consider my ears at least mildly perked up when it comes to Victor Perez. Over the last 12 rounds, he’s ninth in this field in GIR while also ranking eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green, first in SG: Par 5 and even 11th in Bogey Avoidance. That’s only resulted in three straight Top 22 finishes, which is nice but not totally contending. Having said that, after three stellar rounds at the Valero last year that were marred by a dismal Saturday, I like the form of the Frenchman to put himself in the mix this week. 

Brian Giuffra: Chris Kirk (+9000, FanDuel) 

Kirk has a strong history at TPC San Antonio with four Top 10 finishes in his career here. The six-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t had the strongest start to this season with no Top 20s yet, but he played well at The Players Championship before a Sunday 77 dropped him on the leaderboard and I like how his game sets up on this course. 

First-Round Leader 

Iain MacMillan: Chris Kirk (+7500, FanDuel)

Kirk has a strong history at this event, finishing in the top 10 three of the last five times he teed it up here. He also ranks inside the Top 50 on the PGA Tour this season in Round 1 scoring average. He has put together some solid results lately including a T22 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which gives me faith he can string together a solid opening round on Thursday.

Matt Vincenzi: Charley Hoffman (+6500, FanDuel)

I’ve been eyeing Charley Hoffman to get into contention on the PGA Tour one last time over the next few seasons before his 50th birthday. His best opportunity year after year will very likely be at the Valero Texas Open.

John Schwarb: Charley Hoffman (+6500, FanDuel)

I just can’t quit one of my favorite players and will try him as a FRL for the third time this season. At age 48, he has mostly held his own with the flatbellies on Tour, though he withdrew from the Valspar and was T64 in Houston. But the Valero is his happy place, where he’s made 17 of 18 cuts with 13 top-25 finishes, three runner-ups and a win, so I can see the magic coming back for one round. 

Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley (+4000, DraftKings) 

Another week another time to write up Keegan Bradley. The 2025 Ryder Cup captain has been playing some great golf as of late and I once again can see him getting off to a fast start this week. The approach play has been excellent recently and I trust his putter to start hot on Thursday. This has been a great market for me so I am looking to continue the momentum. 

Cody Williams: Lee Hodges (+7000, FanDuel)

Just not going to overthink this with Lee Hodges. He ranks, surprisingly, first on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring this season but, more important than that, he’s finished T6 at TPC San Antonio previously and has gained strokes tee-to-green in seven of his last eight tournaments. That’s enough for me to fire it off and hope his run atop this statistical leaderboard only increases. 

Brian Giuffra: Tom Hoge (+8000, FanDuel)

Hoge is coming off his best performance of the year, a T3 at The Players Championship when his approach game was outstanding. He has two opening-round 64s this year and is known for his hot starts. He hasn’t played this event in three years but had three Top 15 finishes at this event prior. That tracks as his elite ball striking and accuracy off the tee are well suited for TPC San Antonio. 

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Camilo Villegas Top South American (+360, DraftKings)

At a course where past history reigns supreme, Camilo Villegas is the only South American in the field who has put together a solid start at TPC San Antonio, finishing 10th here in 2017 and 17th in 2021. Alejandro Tosti is overvalued on the betting market after his performance last week at a course that fits his style, and Emiliano Grillo is still searching for his swing in 2025. Let’s take a chance on Villegas at +360.

Matt Vincenzi: Charley Hoffman Top 20 (+300)

Hoffman, otherwise known as “Mr. Valero,” absolutely loves TPC San Antonio. He’s finished in the top 15 on the leaderboard eight times in his 15 starts at the course, which is remarkable. He won the event in 2016 and finished runner-up in consecutive years in 2019 and 2021 (the 2020 edition was a pandemic casualty).

John Schwarb: Corey Conners Top Canadian (-200, FanDuel)

Chalk alert! Conners is seventh in FedEx Cup points and loves TPC San Antonio, with a pair of wins and nothing worse than a T35 in six starts. To cash this ticket he just has to beat Ben Silverman, who has missed five cuts in a row including last week, and Adam Svensson, who had missed four cuts in a row before a T67 in Houston. I wouldn’t make a habit out of -200 tickets but this actually feels like a fair price given who Conners has to beat.

Brian Kirschner: Erik Van Rooyen Top African (+160, DraftKings)

This is more of a fade of the other two players he is going up against, Potgieter and Lawrence. The latter is in terribly poor form coming off two MCs shooting +10 and +6 over two days. I also worry about Potgieter's misses off the tee on a course like this so I feel as though +160 is a good number. 

Cody Williams: Steven Fisk Top 20 (+450, BetMGM)

Phrases I didn’t have in my lexicon before this week: I think TPC San Antonio might be an ideal fit for Steven Fisk. The PGA Tour newcomer rankings seventh in SG: Approach, ninth in GIR, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and second in Bogey Avoidance over the last 12 rounds among players in this field. The putter is middling and he missed the cut in Houston, but I’m indifferent. The combination of ball-striking and accuracy gives me confidence he can shine as a bit of a Top 20 longshot. 

Brian Giuffra: Tom Hoge Top 20 (+350, FanDuel) 

I considered Hoge for my longshot outright for all the reasons mentioned above so clearly I like him this week and this market is too tempting to pass up. I won’t rehash those reasons here. I’ll just say I’m putting two units on this and feel confident it will cover all my outright bets this week. 

Final Score Prediction 

• Iain MacMillan: -18
• Matt Vincenzi: -21
• John Schwarb: -20
• Brian Kirschner: -16
• Cody Williams: -19
• Brian Giuffra: -17