Texas Children’s Houston Open Betting Models, Picks: Long, Difficult Memorial Park

Strong play around the green will be a requirement at Memorial Park this week.

Memorial Park Golf Course will host a PGA Tour event for the 5th time in 2025. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

With the Florida Swing complete, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fifth year that Memorial Park will serve as the tournament host in its current iteration. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020-22 and 2024. 

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been long and difficult holes and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three par-5s and five par-3s.

The field will consist of 156 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, Stephan Jaeger, Min Woo Lee and Jason Day.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

• 2024: Stephan Jaeger (-12)
• 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
• 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
• 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up-and-downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Strokes-gained approach per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Henrik Norlander (+0.97)
2. J.J. Spaun (+0.94) 
3. Nick Taylor (+0.85)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+0.84)
5. Doug Ghim (+0.76)

Strokes-gained off the tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course where bombers tend to rise to the top. The rough isn’t incredibly penal, but long and straight will be the best recipe for success. 

Strokes-gained off the tee per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Rico Hoey (+0.96)
2. Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
3. Taylor Pendrith (+0.79)
4. Isaiah Salinda (+0.75) 
5. Rory McIlroy (+0.74) 

Strokes-gained putting on fast Bermudagrass

The Bermudagrass greens will play fast this week, at about 12.5 on the Stimpmeter. 

Strokes-gained putting on fast greens per round over past 36 rounds:

1. Taylor Montgomery (+1.14) 
2. Alejandro Tosti (+1.09) 
3. Maverick McNealy (+1.00) 
4. Max Greyserman (+0.84) 
5. Brandt Snedeker (+0.75)

Strokes-gained around the green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-downs around the greens. 

Strokes-gained around the green per round over past 24 rounds:

1. Alex Smalley (+0.78) 
2. Aaron Baddeley (+0.74)
3. Peter Malnati (+0.64) 
4. Michael Kim (+0.63) 
5. Matt Wallance (+0.55) 

Strokes-gained off the tee on driver-heavy, easy driving courses

Players can let it rip with the driver on most holes at Memorial Park. Even in doing so, the fairways aren’t incredibly difficult to hit and the rough isn’t all that penal. 

Strokes-gained off the tee on driver heavy, easy driving courses over past 36 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+1.07)
2. Min Woo Lee (+1.01)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.76)
4. Rico Hoey (+0.69)
5. Isaiah Salinda (+0.66)

Course history

Players who have played well at Memorial Park before should have an edge this week. 

Course history over past 16 rounds:

1. Thomas Detry (+2.76)
2. Alejandro Tosti (+2.76)
3. David Skinns (+2.51)
4. Max Greyserman (+2.51)
5. Tony Finau (+2.48)

Comparable course rankings

This season, I am generating a rankings list of the best players cumulatively at the comparable courses. For Memorial Park, I am using GC of Houston, Renaissance Club, Congaree, Quail Hollow, Augusta National, TPC Scottsdale, Riviera, Southern Hills and Bay Hill.

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Thomas Detry
4. Wyndham Clark
5. Rasmus Højgaard
6. Jason Day
7. Sahith Theegala
8. Nick Taylor
9. Sungjae Im
10. Harris English

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (20%) strokes-gained off the tee (22%); strokes-gained putting on fast Bermudagrass (15%); strokes-gained off the tee on driver-heavy, easy driving courses (12%); comparable courses (10%), course history (10%) and strokes-gained around the green (13%). 

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Taylor Moore
4. Kurt Kitayama
5. Aaron Rai
6. Alex Smalley
7. Jhonattan Vegas
8. Jason Day
9. Davis Thompson
10. Si Woo Kim

Last week's picks results for the Valspar Championship:

Corey Conners (25-1): T8
Jordan Spieth (35-1): T28
Will Zalatoris (40-1): T47
Viktor Hovland (80-1): WIN
Nicolai Hojgaard (80-1): MC
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (80-1): MC
Charley Hoffman (125-1): MC

2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open picks

Jason Day +4000 (DraftKings)

I picked Jason Day in my Players Championship preview, but he withdrew due to an illness. After taking last week off, the Australian should be ready to go this week in Houston. 

When we last saw Day, he was in contention at Bay Hill before a mud ball took him out of the running. He’s had some strong results this season with a T3 finish at the American Express and a T8 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The strong start to the year could be due in part to Day’s reuniting with his childhood coach, Colin Swatton. After a 64 on Friday at Bay Hill, he spoke about the change. 

“Some of the (putting) stuff that I was doing I was a little cramped, eyes too far over the ball—I’ve always been a person that has had my eyes on the inside of the ball, like a long way. Just a head position change, a little bit further away, hands, arms up a little bit higher so the shoulders can pitch a lot better or swing a little bit better,” Day said.

In Day’s first start at Memorial Park, he finished in a tie for seventh. It’s been up and down since, but he also finished T16 in 2023. At an event that should be difficult to score, I like Day’s chances to contend. 

Min Woo Lee +4000 (DraftKings)

Min Woo Lee found himself in the final group on Saturday at the Players Championship. He struggled mightily, but the fact that he got himself in a spot to contend on the weekend at a big event can only be a positive for his development. 

Although Lee may not yet possess the elite iron play required to compete at TPC Sawgrass, he should be well-suited for Memorial Park. Length off the tee and skillful hands around the green, particularly from tight lies, are the key attributes for players contending this week. The Australian boasts an abundance of both these skills.

Lee has finished in the top 20 in five of his seven starts in 2025. He’s gained strokes putting in six of those starts and is rolling it at an elite level for the season. If he can produce an above-average week with the irons, he should play well this week in Houston. 

Tony Finau +4000 (DraftKings)

I’m not sure if Finau is in form or not, but I found this opening number to be flat-out disrespectful. Finau won this event in 2022 and was T2 in 2024. 

When Finau finished runner-up at Memorial Park last year, he had finished T45 at the Players Championship and missed the cut at the Valspar Championship. When he won the event in the fall of 2022, he was coming off of a missed cut as well. The 35-year-old has clearly demonstrated he’s capable of winning when he’s not in the best form. 

In addition to winning in Houston, Finau has also won the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club, which is a Tom Doak design as is Memorial Park. If the putter cooperates this week, Tony is one of the few players in the field who can go shot for shot with Scottie Scheffler for a stretch. 

Wyndham Clark +4000 (DraftKings)

Wyndham Clark withdrew during his most recent start at the Players Championship due to a neck injury, but plans on playing this week. He was well out of the mix at TPC Sawgrass before he withdrew, so I’m not overly concerned with the fact that he withdrew in the second round. 

Over his last 36 rounds, Clark ranks sixth in the field in strokes-gained total at Tom Doak designs. His combination of length off the tee and ability to make putts is the skill set combination that has gone really well at Memorial Park over the first four editions of the tournament. 

Clark is a player who, despite not always having his best stuff, holds win equity if he does get involved. He’s beaten the best in the world in the U.S. Open and has also come incredibly close to beating Scottie Scheffler at the Players. With Scottie’s presence looming large at a course he absolutely loves, I want players on my card who won’t back down from him. 

Max Greyserman +7500 (DraftKings)

Prior to the Players Championship, Max Greyserman had strung together a great Florida swing with three consecutive finishes in the top 25. The 29-year-old is another in the similar mold of Clark and Lee, who hit the ball a long way and are also great putters. 

Greyserman finished T7 at Memorial Park last year, and gained about four strokes putting. Over the past few seasons, he’s been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. He ranks third in strokes-gained putting on fast Bermudagrass greens. 

I thought this was a great opening number for Greyserman. 

Davis Riley +19000 (DraftKings)

This seemed to be a misprice on Davis Riley, who has played some fantastic golf over the past few weeks. 

Riley finished seventh at last week’s Valspar Championship and ranked fifth in the field in approach, gaining 6.80 strokes on the field. He also had a fantastic iron day on Sunday, where he led the field in approach. 

Last year Riley finished T14 at the Houston Open, and he has won a PGA Tour event in Texas. Riley won last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, where he won by five strokes over Scottie Scheffler and Keegan Bradley.

Riley is scorching hot with his irons. If he can make some putts this week, he’ll have a chance to win his second tournament in the state of Texas. 

Emiliano Grillo +30000 (DraftKings)

I’ve been quietly monitoring Emiliano Grillo round by round over the past few weeks, and I really like what I’m seeing. 

The results for Grillo have been downright awful, but he has put together some masterful rounds with his irons, which is always a tell for the Argentine. He gained 4.08 strokes on approach in the first round of the Players Championship, which led the field. In Round 2, he gained 1.90. He had a really bad round on Saturday, but that shouldn’t take away from the clear progress he made to start the week. 

Last week, Grillo finished T22 at the Valspar Championship. The irons weren’t quite as dialed but he ranked third in strokes-gained off the tee for the week. Something is telling me that the 32-year-old is close to a breakthrough. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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