Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Friday, Aug. 22

Sean Treppedi | Aug 22, 2025

Veronica Burton has value on her points-assists combo against the Mercury on Friday. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

The Phoenix Mercury return home Friday night to host the Golden State Valkyries in their fourth and final meeting of the season. 

Phoenix is on the second leg of a back-to-back after being run off the floor by Las Vegas, a 22-point loss that exposed just how much they lean on Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally when Kahleah Copper isn’t at full strength. 

The Valkyries, meanwhile, continue to scrap in their first season, sitting inside the playoff picture thanks to a defense that has ranked among the WNBA’s stingiest. 

They’ve pushed the Mercury to the brink in each of their last two meetings and arrive in Phoenix well-rested, hoping to avoid a season sweep.

Valkyries vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Valkyries +6.5 (-110)
• Mercury -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Valkyries (+210)
• Aces (-265)

Total

• Over 154.5 (-114)
• Under 154.5 (-106)

Valkyries vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Friday August 22, 2025
• Time: 10 p.m. ET
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ION
• Valkyries Record: 18-17
• Mercury Record: 21-14

Valkyries vs. Mercury Prop Bet

• Veronica Burton Over 17.5 Points + Assists (-112 at FanDuel)

In three games against the Mercury this season, Burton averaged 19 points while shooting efficiently, and earlier this week she delivered a career-best 24 points paired with 14 assists — a performance that showcased her ability to control pace and punish Phoenix’s defensive lapses.

Burton’s confidence with the ball has grown each month of the season, and her willingness to attack gaps off the dribble has forced the Mercury’s backcourt into rotation after rotation, often leaving shooters open or bigs out of position on the glass. What makes her Points + Assists prop particularly appealing is how she doesn’t need an outlier shooting night to get there; her vision and playmaking set a high floor, and the matchup consistently gives her room to pile up dimes when Phoenix overplays her scoring. 

Valkyries vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Golden State has been one of the league’s most profitable teams all season, owning the top record against the spread, and this spot sets up well again. The Mercury not only has to manage a back-to-back, but also the emotional and physical blow of losing Copper mid-game last night, which significantly impacts their perimeter defense and transition scoring. Phoenix has already shown cracks when playing short-handed, and its bench has not been reliable enough to cover for missing production. 

The Valkyries have leaned into their identity as a defensive-minded team that can slow tempo, limit possessions, and hang around. They have a rebounding edge over Phoenix, which is a critical factor given that the Mercury were exposed on the glass just last night. Burton’s emergence as a confident lead guard, paired with the expected return of Tiffany Hayes, gives Golden State just enough firepower to complement its defensive structure. 

Pick: Valkyries +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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