Warriors vs. Suns Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Dec. 18

Can the Suns pull off a win as home dogs?

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is a great prop target on Thursday. / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors are a game under .500 and just 6-10 on the road heading into Thursday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns in Arizona.

The Suns are the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference this season, and Devin Booker and company have defied preseason expectations by playing a strong defensive style under first-year head coach Jordan Ott. 

The Warriors are small favorites in this matchup, but Phoenix has been one of the best home teams in the NBA posting a net rating of +5.1 this season, which is No. 10 in the NBA.

Given the Warriors’ struggles to open the season, could we see an “upset” on Thursday?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Warriors vs. Suns Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors -2.5 (-105)
• Suns +2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Warriors: -130
• Suns: +110

Total

• 231.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Suns How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Dec. 18
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports Bay Area, Arizona’s Family Sports
• Warriors record: 13-14
• Suns record: 14-12

Warriors vs. Suns Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Al Horford – out
• Pat Spencer – out

Suns Injury Report

• Grayson Allen – questionable
• Koby Brea – out
• Jordan Goodwin – available
• Jalen Green – out
• Isaiah Livers – questionable

Warriors vs. Suns Best NBA Prop Bets

Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry OVER 28.5 Points (-121)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I shared why Curry is a great bet to clear this points total for the eighth time in 10 games:

Golden State Warriors superstar Steph Curry has attempted to put this team on his back – when he’s been healthy – in the 2025-26 season. 

Curry is averaging 29.6 points per game while shooting an impressive 48.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from 3-point range. He’s knocked down 18 3-pointers in two games since returning from an injury, and he’s scored over 28.5 points in seven of his last nine games.

Overall, Curry has 11 games with 29 or more points this season, and he dropped 28 (on 9-of-23 shooting) in his lone meeting with tonight’s opponent – the Phoenix Suns. 

Steph is taking 2.2 more shots and 1.4 more 3-pointers per game this season, so it’s not a total surprise that his scoring is soaring. I think he’s worth a look to stay hot and clear this line on Thursday night. 

Warriors vs. Suns Prediction and Pick

These are two strong defensive teams this season, as the Warriors are fifth in the NBA in defensive rating while the Suns are 16th, but that number jumps to 10th at home.

Phoenix has hit the UNDER in 14 of 26 games this season, and I think this total is a little high with Grayson Allen questionable and Jalen Green still out for the Suns. 

Phoenix and Golden State are 20th (Phoenix) and 22nd (GS) in points per game this season, and the Warriors actually rank in the bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating even though Steph Curry has gone nuclear all season long.

The Suns aren’t much better, clocking in at 16th in offensive rating in the 2025-26 campaign.

These two teams have hung their hat on the defensive end for a lot of this season, especially when Phoenix is at home.

I lean with the UNDER on Thursday given Golden State’s struggles on the road (6-10 this season). 

Pick: UNDER 231.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.