Wings vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for WNBA Commissioner's Cup

The Mercury are favored at home on Wednesday.

The Mercury are favored at home on Wednesday. / Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The Dallas Wings are searching for their first WNBA Commissioner’s Cup win of the 2025 season on Wednesday night when they hit the road to play Satou Sabally and the Phoenix Mercury.

Sabally is getting to face her former team after she left Dallas in the offseason, and the Mercury are off to a strong start despite dealing with injuries to Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, and Natasha Mack.

The Wings have also dealt with the injury bug, as No. 1 overall pick Paige Bueckers has missed the last several games in concussion protocol and with an illness. Bueckers returned to practice on Tuesday, a good sign for her chances of playing on Wednesday night.

Oddsmakers have the Mercury set as home favorites in this matchup, and rightfully so given Dallas’ 1-9 record.

Let’s break down the odds, my favorite prop bet and prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Wings vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Wings +5 (-110)
• Mercury -5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Wings: +180
• Mercury: -218

Total

• 167.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Wings vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): WNBA League Pass
• Wings record: 1-9
• Mercury record: 6-4

Wings vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Wings Injury Report

• Paige Bueckers – expected to play
• Ty Harris – out
• Teaira McCowan – out

Mercury Injury Report

• Natasha Mack – game-time decision
• Alyssa Thomas – game-time decision
• Megan McConnell – out
• Kahleah Copper – out

Wings vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

These prop picks were written before odds were released and are based on previous player performance.

Wings Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Paige Bueckers OVER Assists

Bueckers is expected to return to the lineup on Wednesday, and she’s worth a look in the assists market.

The No. 1 overall pick is averaging 6.7 dimes per game this season, picking up seven or more assists in four of her six games.

The Wings – despite their poor record in 2025 – are seventh in the W in offensive rating and were a top-five unit before Bueckers went down. I expect the young guard to elevate her team’s offense on Wednesday night. 

Wings vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

While the Wings have been a better offensive team with Bueckers in the fold, they are just seventh in offensive rating, 10th in effective field goal percentage, and eighth in assist/turnover ratio overall this season.

Now, Dallas is taking on a Phoenix team that is fourth in the WNBA in defensive rating and could look to slow the pace with Natasha Mack, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper all banged up. 

Copper has not played in the 2025 season, and it’s led to the Mercury being one of the better UNDER teams in the W, going 5-4-1 in their 10 games. Meanwhile, Dallas is 6-4 to the UNDER in the 2025 season.

This total is a little high for my liking since these teams are combining to average just around 160 points per game between the two of them. 

Pick: UNDER 167.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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