Wings vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Monday, July 7

The Wings are road underdogs as they aim to win a third straight game.

Dallas Wings guard Paige Bueckers is a great prop target on Monday. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Dallas Wings have won back-to-back games and are looking to make it three straight when they take on the Phoenix Mercury on Monday night.

These teams matched up back on July 3, and Dallas won that game 98-89 at home to move to 6-13 in the 2025 season. While the Wings still have the third-worst record in the WNBA, they are a top-seven offense and have shown some promise with rookies Paige Bueckers and Aziaha James.

James and Bueckers combined for a whopping 51 points in the win on Thursday night. 

Now, Dallas is set as an underdog against a Mercury team that has dropped two games in a row and won’t have Satou Sabally or Kahleah Copper in action on Monday. The Wings are banged up as well, as DiJonai Carrington, Maddy Siegrist and Arike Ogunbowale are all out for this matchup. 

Still, Dallas won without them last week.

Can the Wings keep their hot stretch going and get back into the mix for a playoff spot?

Let’s break down the odds, my favorite player prop and my game prediction for this Western Conference battle. 

Wings vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Wings +6 (-110)
• Mercury -6 (-110)

Moneyline

• Wings: +205
• Mercury: -250

Total

• 165.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Wings vs. Mercury How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 7
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: PHX Arena
• How to Watch (TV): KFAA and AZFamily
• Wings record: 6-13
• Mercury record: 12-6

Wings vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Wings Injury Report

• Ty Harris – out
• DiJonai Carrington – out
• Arike Ogunbowale – out
• Maddy Siegrist – out

Mercury Injury Report

• Lexi Held – out
• Satou Sabally – out
• Kahleah Copper – out

Wings vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Wings Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Paige Bueckers OVER 19.5 Points (-135)

With so many key players out for the Wings, Bueckers is a must-bet to keep up an insanely impressive rookie season.

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft is averaging 18.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 34.8 percent from 3. Since returning from concussion protocol back on June 11, Bueckers is averaging 21.8 points on 16.6 shots per game.

I expect her usage to remain high with Ogunbowale and Carrington sidelined on Monday night. Bueckers had 23 in Thursday’s meeting with the Mercury, shooting an efficient 8-for-11 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. 

Wings vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Wings are worth a bet as road underdogs on Monday: 

The Wings have the third-worst record in the WNBA, but they’ve won back-to-back games against the Washington Mystics and the Mercury to leapfrog the Chicago Sky in the standings.

Dallas played well offensively against Phoenix on July 3, scoring 98 points despite Ogunbowale, Carrington and Maddy Siegrist all being out of the lineup. 

Rookies Aziaha James and Bueckers combined for 51 points in the win. 

What’s notable about that matchup is that the Mercury had Alyssa Thomas, Sabally and Copper all in action. Now, Phoenix will be without two of its All-Stars at home in Monday’s contest. I’m not sold on the Mercury being heavily favored in this game without them.

Phoenix has an impressive record at 12-6, but it has dropped back-to-back games and ranks fifth in the W in offensive, defensive and net rating. Dallas doesn’t defend well (10th in defensive rating), but it does have a top-seven offense this season.

With the Mercury down their two best scorers on Monday, I’ll take the points with the Wings. 

Pick: Wings +6 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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