Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Aces-Storm, Fever-Dream, Kelsey Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA playoff action on Thursday, Sept. 18.

The Aces are favored to advance to the WNBA semifinals. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

A pair of winner-take-all Game 3s are set for Thursday night in the WNBA after both the Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm won at home on Tuesday night.

Indiana held the Atlanta Dream to just 60 points in its Game 2 win, staying alive even with Caitlin Clark out for the season.

Seattle was able to end the Las Vegas Aces’ 17-game winning streak with a win on Tuesday, a huge bounce back from the team’s blowout loss in Game 1.

However, both the Fever and Storm are underdogs in Game 3 as they go back on the road on Thursday. Does either squad have an upset in them? 

It’s going to be tough to pick up a win against either Atlanta or Las Vegas, as both teams have been elite at home this season.

With a trip to the semifinals on the line, how should we bet on Thursday’s action? 

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bets for one of the biggest nights to date in the 2025 WNBA season. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 75-77-2 (-3.63 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 159-153-2 (+0.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Atlanta Dream-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-154)
• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 19.5 Points (-130)

Atlanta Dream-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-154)

I’ve bet this parlay a few times as of late, and while it failed badly in the Game 2 matchups for these teams, I do think it’ll hit on Thursday. 

Atlanta Dream

Atlanta is looking to bounce back after one of its worst offensive showings of the 2025 season, and I think it’s in a great spot to do so at home. 

The Dream were 16-6 at home in the regular season and are 1-0 this postseason, and oddsmakers have not wavered on them winning this series, favoring them by 7.5 points.

At home this season, the Dream have a net rating of +11.8 – the third-best mark in the WNBA. On top of that, the Fever have a net rating of -1.8 on the road.

Indiana’s win in Game 2 was impressive, but I can’t see the Dream dropping two games in a row after how dominant they’ve been this season. 

Las Vegas Aces

A collapse in the fourth quarter cost the Aces in Game 2, as they were outscored 25-14 to send this series to a winner-take-all Game 3.

I don’t expect Vegas to fall asleep again late, especially since the team went 17-5 at home in the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs) and had a home net rating of +7.5.

Vegas thoroughly dominated the Storm in Game 1, and it took 15 Vegas turnovers (and 16 Seattle fast break points) for the Storm to pull off the upset at home in Game 2.

I’ll trust the Aces to build on their dominant home record in this game. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home since Aug. 2. 

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 19.5 Points (-130)

So far in the playoffs, Kelsey Mitchell has scored 27 and 19 points while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.

Mitchell attempted 18 shots in Game 1 and 13 in Game 2, nearly clearing this prop in both games.

With the season on the line for the Fever once again in Game 3, I’ll trust the star guard to score 20 or more points. Mitchell has 25 games (including playoffs) with at least 20 points this season and she’s averaged 20.2 points per game in the regular season.

For a player that is as involved as Mitchell is in the Fever offense, asking her to hit her season average in this game is a steal. I’d expect that the star guard pushes 15 or more shots in Game 3 with the Fever potentially playing from behind in Atlanta.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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