Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Fever-Dream, Storm-Aces, Kelsey Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA playoff action on Sunday, Sept. 14.

The Las Vegas Aces and center A'ja Wilson are favored in Game 1 against the Seattle Storm. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The WNBA playoffs are HERE!

Sunday features a massive four-game slate to open each first-round series, starting with the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Golden State Valkyries at 1 p.m. EST.

The Lynx, Las Vegas Aces and Atlanta Dream (the top three seeds in the W) are all favored at home in their playoff openers, but the No. 4 Phoenix Mercury are home dogs (by two points) against the No. 5-seeded New York Liberty.

After an injury-riddled regular season, the Liberty don’t have anyone on their injury report ahead of Sunday’s matchup as they look to defend their title from last season.

I’m eyeing a few plays for the playoff action on Sunday, including a moneyline parlay between two of the home favorites.

Here’s a breakdown of each bet as the race for the WNBA title begins! 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 73-75-2 (-3.26 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 157-151-2 (+1.19 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Atlanta Dream-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-120)
• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 18.5 Points (-125)

Atlanta Dream-Las Vegas Aces Moneyline Parlay (-120)

Atlanta Dream

The Dream enter into the playoffs on a major winning streak, taking each of their last six games to earn the No. 3 seed and nearly take the No. 2 spot from the Aces.

Now, they are facing a banged up Indiana team that won’t have Caitlin Clark, Damiris Dantas, Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson and multiple other rotation players in this matchup. 

Indiana did enough to make the playoffs, but the team is just 11-11 on the road in 2025 and posted a net rating of just +2.6 over the last 15 games of the season. 

Atlanta had the second-best net rating in the W in the regular season, and it went 16-6 at home. I love this healthy Dream team to win this game with Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and others really taking a step forward throughout the 2025 campaign. 

Las Vegas Aces

The Aces have won 16 games in a row ahead of Game 1 against the Storm, an insane winning streak for a team that looked like it may fall out of the playoff picture in the WNBA after a slow start to the season.

A’ja Wilson and company have a net rating of +15.4 over their last 15 games (the best mark in the W), and I think they’re massively undervalued against a Seattle Storm team that is seventh in net rating during that stretch and are just eighth in offensive rating for the entire season.

Las Vegas has the No. 2 defense in the W during this winning streak, and it ranks No. 1 in the league in offensive rating.

Plus, the Aces are 17-5 straight up at home this season. I expect them to win outright on Sunday.  

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 18.5 Points (-125)

One of the best guards in the WNBA, Mitchell finished the regular season averaging 20.2 points per game while shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 39.4 percent from 3-point range.

Mitchell has taken a ton of shots at times this season, and she averaged 21.4 points per game in 21 games after the All-Star break.

Against Atlanta this season, Mitchell scored 24, 17, 11 and 25 points, and she closed out the regular season with 20 or more points in 13 of her final 21 games.

At just 18.5 points, I love Mitchell to clear this number in what feels like a must-win for the Fever if they want to have a chance to upset this Atlanta team in this series.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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