Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Aces vs. Mercury, A’ja Wilson, Kahleah Copper)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Game 4 of the WNBA Finals between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces.

Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper is a solid prop target in Game 4. / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Will there be a sweep in the WNBA Finals? 

A’ja Wilson’s monster Game 3 — capped by her game-winning shot with 0.1 seconds left — gave the Las Vegas Aces a 3-0 series lead over the Phoenix Mercury heading into Friday’s Game 4.

The Mercury have been pushed to the brink in this series, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games. Now, oddsmakers have set them as home underdogs in a must-win Game 4.

In Game 3, I didn’t bet on a side in this matchup, but I went 4-for-4 in player props for Wilson, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper and Jackie Young.

With the possibility that this is the final game of the 2025 WNBA season, it’s only right that we place a few winners.

Here’s a breakdown of my favorite bets for Game 4 of the Aces-Mercury matchup.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 89-88-2 (-3.17 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 173-164-2 (+1.29 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-115)
• Kahleah Copper OVER 18+ Points (-135)

A’ja Wilson OVER 25.5 Points (-115)

Simply put, the Mercury have not had an answer for Wilson in this series. 

The four-time league MVP is averaging 27.7 points on 19.7 shots per game in this series, scoring 28 and 34 points in her last two games. Even though Wilson didn’t clear this line in Game 1, she has 26 or more points in four of her last five games dating back to the WNBA Semifinals against the Indiana Fever.

There’s no doubt that Wilson is the focal point of the Las Vegas offense, and after taking just 16 shots in Game 1, she’s been much more assertive in the last two wins, attempting 23 and 20 shots while getting the free-throw line for 16 attempts. 

I expect the Aces to put the ball in the MVP’s hands early and often as they look to finish off Phoenix in four. 

Kahleah Copper OVER 18+ Points (-135)

Satou Sabally left in the fourth quarter of Game 3 with a head injury, and Copper, who had less than 10 points at the time, helped bring the Mercury back before losing on Wilson’s game-winner.

In this series, Copper has scored 21, 23 and 17 points while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from 3. She’s attempted 14.7 shots per game, giving her a terrific floor to reach 18 or more points in Game 4. 

I expect the Mercury to pull out all the stops to avoid getting swept, which could include extended minutes for Copper and Alyssa Thomas. Copper has played over 35 minutes in two games in this series, and the Mercury lost both of those matchups by just one possession. 

The former Finals MVP should rise to the occasion with the season on the line. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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