Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jackie Young, Lynx-Mercury, Aces-Fever)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Game 4 matchups in the WNBA Semifinals on Sunday, Sept. 28.

Las Vegas Aces guard Jackie Young is a great prop target in Game 4. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Sunday’s WNBA playoff action features two massive Game 4s in the semifinals, as the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury aim to advance to the Finals.

Las Vegas is set as a 4.5-point favorite on the road against the Indiana Fever after winning Games 2 and 3 to take a 2-1 series lead.

In the other series, the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx are on the ropes and will be without superstars Napheesa Collier, who was injured in Game 3. 

Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve was thrown out of Game 3 after Collier went down, and she ripped the officiating afterwards in her press conference.

That has led to the WNBA suspending Reeve for Game 4 in Phoenix. The Lynx are just 7-4 without Collier this season, so they’re facing an uphill battle to reach the Finals for the second season in a row.

With so much at stake on Sunday, I’m eyeing a couple of bets for the action, including a player prop for Jackie Young. 

Here’s a full breakdown of each play to make for these WNBA Semifinal matchups.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 81-84-2 (-5.26 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 165-160-2 (-0.80 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Jackie Young OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-120)
• Minnesota Lynx-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 156 (-112)

Jackie Young OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-120)

Jackie Young has been elite on the glass in the playoffs, grabbing five or more boards in five of her six games.

During the regular season, Young averaged 4.5 rebounds per game, but she’s clearly stepped up in the postseason, averaging 4.8 boards in 33.0 minutes per game.

While Young isn’t expected to dominate the glass in any game, she’s proven to be an important secondary rebounder that has a major role on both ends.

I will back her again to clear this rebound prop in the postseason. 

Minnesota Lynx-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 156 (-112)

With Collier out of the lineup, the Lynx are in trouble in this Game 4 matchup.

Not only does Minnesota struggle without Collier (7-4 this season), but the team’s offense goes from averaging 88.2 points per game to 79.5 points per game. 

Lynx in regular season with Napheesa Collier:
27-6 record
88.2 PPG

Without Collier:
7-4 record
79.5 PPG

— Underdog WNBA (@UnderdogWNBA) September 28, 2025

So, that sets up well for the UNDER, especially since these teams have played multiple games under this number in their matchups during the regular season.

In Game 3, the Lynx and Mercury combined for 160 points, but Collier’s absence should drop this total – especially since neither team has gotten to the line a ton in this series.

Overall, the UNDER has hit in over half of Phoenix’s games in the 2025 season. I think bettors should expect a defensive slugfest between two top-five defenses in the league with Collier out.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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