Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lynx-Mercury, Aces Dream in Game 3)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Game 3 matchups in the WNBA Semifinals on Friday, Sept. 26.

The Las Vegas Aces and center A'ja Wilson are favored on Friday in Game 3. / Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

Everything is all square in the WNBA Semifinals heading into the Game 3 action on Friday night. 

After dropping Game 1 at home, the No. 2-seeded Las Vegas Aces stormed back on Tuesday, beating the Indiana Fever by 22 points to even the series.

With things shifting to Indiana, Las Vegas needs to steal just one of two games to force a winner-take-all Game 5.

In the other semifinal series between the Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury, history appeared to repeat itself — just for a different team.

After Phoenix led at half before getting thoroughly outplayed in Game 1, the Lynx blew a 16-point lead in Game 2, eventually losing in overtime.

That series is now tied at one game apiece as things shift to Phoenix for Game 3.

Interestingly enough, both the Aces and Lynx are favored on the road in their Game 3 matchups — a sign that oddsmakers expect these teams to at least be able to force a Game 5 on their home floor.

Let’s break down some best bets for each of these matchups as the playoffs heat up in the W.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 79-83-2 (-6.08 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 163-159-2 (-1.62 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Minnesota Lynx-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 158.5 (-110)
• Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Fever

Minnesota Lynx-Phoenix Mercury UNDER 158.5 (-110)

The Lynx and Mercury went to overtime in Game 2, finishing with 172 combined points – the first time that they’ve gone over 158.5 points in a meeting this season.

During the regular season, these teams fell short of 158.5 points four times, and the Mercury are one of the best UNDER teams in the W this season (27-19-2). 

Both of these teams finished the regular season in the top five in defensive rating, and Game 2 was on its way to the UNDER before Phoenix scored 47 second-half points to force overtime. The 14 points in OT were enough to push that game OVER. 

Now, with things back in Phoenix, I expect a low-scoring game as long as this matchup doesn’t also go to an extra period.  

Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (-110) vs. Indiana Fever

In Games 1 and 2 of this series, the Fever were underdogs by nine or more points, and I felt that the right side was to back them to cover in both games.

While they did cover in Game 1 with an outright win, they were blown out by 22 points in Game 2. 

Now, oddsmakers have cut the line in half with the Fever at home, setting them as 4.5-point dogs in Game 3. I think that line is a little mispriced, as Indiana has not been a dominant team at home (13-9 straight up), while both of these teams are over .500 against the spread for the season.

The Aces did not play well in Game, struggling from the field in that matchup, but they bounced back with 90 points in Game 2 – led by a huge game from A’ja Wilson. 

Las Vegas is the better team in this matchup with all the injuries for Indiana, and I think it can cover a spread that is around two possessions.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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