Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Aces, Alyssa Thomas, Jewell Loyd)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Game 1 of the WNBA Finals between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces.

Phoenix Mercury forward Alyssa Thomas is a solid prop target in Game 1. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The 2025 WNBA Finals feature an exciting matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury, as both teams have defied the odds to get here.

Phoenix was the No. 4 seed in the regular season, and it beat the defending champion New York Liberty and the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx to make the Finals.

Now, the Mercury find themselves as underdogs in this series against the No. 2-seeded Aces, who are looking to win their third title in four seasons.

MVP A’ja Wilson helped lead this team on a 16-game winning streak to close the regular season, vaulting Las Vegas into the No. 2 seed in the league.

However, the Aces went the distance in the WNBA Semifinals, needing overtime in a deciding Game 5 to take down the Indiana Fever. Will the Aces struggle against a Mercury team with a lot of Finals experience on the roster? 

Game 1 on Friday features a bunch of interesting betting angles, and I’m eyeing picks for …

Here’s a full breakdown of each of the best bets for Game 1 of the Finals. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 84-85-2 (-3.57 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 168-161-2 (+0.89 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-155) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Jewell Loyd UNDER 8.5 Points (-120)
• Alyssa Thomas 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-130)

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-155) vs. Phoenix Mercury

These teams are somewhat opposites in the playoffs, as the Aces rank No. 1 in the league in offensive rating while the Mercury are No. 1 in defensive rating.

However, I think Las Vegas is the team to back at home in Game 1. 

This season, the Aces are a 21-6 straight up at home (including playoffs), and their only loss of the playoffs at Michelob Ultra Arena came in Game 1 to the Indiana Fever. Las Vegas also is an impressive 3-1 against the Mercury this season, winning each of the last three matchups between these teams. 

Phoenix has a lot of WNBA Finals experience despite the team getting a ton of new faces in the offseason, but it doesn’t have the continuity that the Aces have from their 2023 title team.

Plus, the Mercury were just 12-10 straight up in the regular season on the road. 

Las Vegas had some ups and downs in the semis against Indiana, but I think the Mercury benefitted in a big way from Napheesa Collier’s injury in their series.

Since the Aces have just three losses over the last two months of action, I think they’re worth a bet to win the series opener. 

Jewell Loyd UNDER 8.5 Points (-120)

This postseason, Jewell Loyd has taken on a smaller role in the Las Vegas offense, averaging just 7.3 points on 6.0 shots per game. Loyd has yet to attempt double-digit shots in a single game this postseason. 

The veteran guard is also coming off the bench for the Aces, and she’s failed to clear 8.5 points in five of her eight playoff games, including four of the five games against Indiana in the semifinals.

Loyd is a dynamic scorer when at the top of her game, but the Aces don’t need her to be the focal point of their offense. A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young have clearly set themselves apart from the rest of the team in that regard, and Loyd has seen her usage decrease as a result.

It also doesn’t help her case that she’s shooting just 37.5 percent from the field in the postseason.

Against the No. 1 defense in the playoffs, I think Loyd falls short of this number for the sixth time in nine games. 

Alyssa Thomas 35+ Points, Rebounds and Assists (-130)

Mercury star Alyssa Thomas has been one of the driving forces for the team’s success this entire season, and she’s a triple-double threat on a nightly basis.

This postseason, Thomas has put up 35 or more points, rebounds and assists in four of her seven games, including the last three games of the semis against the Lynx.

Overall, the six-time All-Star is averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game in the postseason. 

In her regular-season meetings with the Aces, Thomas had 34, 30, 31 and 33 PRA. While she failed to clear this line in all of those matchups, Thomas has seen her scoring jump from the regular season, going from 15.4 points per game to 18.6 per game in the playoffs. 

I think she’s a great bet to hit this number against an Aces team that has played some high-scoring affairs this postseason.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Unlock eight $25 bonus bets and a discounted NFL Sunday Ticket when you claim the latest promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet and you will receive a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.