Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Aces, Sabrina Ionescu, Kiki Iriafen)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA action on Thursday, Aug. 21.

Washington Mystics forward Kiki Iriafen is a solid prop target on Aug. 21. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

A huge night of WNBA action is set for Thursday, Aug. 21, as the New York Liberty (the No. 2 seed), Atlanta Dream (the No. 3 seed), Minnesota Lynx (the No. 1 seed), Phoenix Mercury (the No. 4 seed) and Las Vegas Aces (the No. 5 seed) are all in action.

Here’s a quick look at the full schedule for tonight: 

• Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun
• Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty
• Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream
• Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces

Just a half game separates the Aces from the No. 2-seeded Liberty, and if A’ja Wilson and company win on Thursday, they’ll immediately jump Phoenix in the standings.

For non-playoff teams (at the moment), the Mystics are hoping to bounce back from an 11-point loss to the Sun (on Tuesday) in their rematch tonight. Washington is 1.5 games back of the No. 8-seeded Seattle Storm entering tonight’s action. 

With such an important slate of games in the W, I’m looking to place some bets for the night’s action.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and plays for Thursday, Aug. 21. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 50-58 (-4.90 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 134-133 (-0.43 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-125) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 18.5 Points (-115)
• Kiki Iriafen OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-145)

Las Vegas Aces Moneyline (-125) vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Aces are rolling at the moment, winning eight games in a row and nine of their last 10, including a close win over the Dream on Tuesday.

Las Vegas has gotten into the mix for the No. 2 seed in the W, and it’s dominated at home as of late, moving to 13-5 straight up at Michelob Ultra Arena.

The Mercury have won back-to-back games as well, coming back from a big deficit against the Golden State Valkyries on Tuesday night. However, I’m leaning with the Aces in this matchup.

Phoenix has fared well on the road (10-7), but Las Vegas has hit another level on this winning streak, posting a net rating of +12.0 while ranking No. 1 in the league in offense and No. 4 in defense.

Oddsmakers seem to be signaling that Phoenix is the better team with this short spread, but I’m buying the Aces at home, where they haven’t lost since Aug. 2. 

Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 18.5 Points (-115)

Even though she made a huge 3-point to put away the Lynx on Tuesday night, Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu is slumping in a big way at the moment.

She’s failed to score over 18.5 points in seven straight games and during that stretch she’s shooting just 32.0 percent from the field and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc.

Ionescu is taking nearly 14 shots per game during that stretch, but it hasn’t been enough to push her over this number. While she will find some easy looks against a weak Chicago defense, there’s a chance the Liberty go up by so much that they sit her down the stretch.

New York has wins by 19 and 25 against Chicago this season, and Ionescu has cleared 18.5 points in just one of those matchups.

Until her shooting slump ends, she’s a tough player to trust in the prop market. 

Kiki Iriafen OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-145)

Washington Mystics rookie forward Kiki Iriafen is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game this season, and she’s grabbed at least 10 boards in five straight games, clearing this prop in six in a row.

The former Stanford and USC star has a great matchup against the Sun, who rank dead last in the W in rebounding percentage and allowed Iriafen to grab 12 rebounds in 33:25 on Tuesday night.

In her games against Connecticut this season, Iriafen is averaging over 10 boards per game (31 in three games), clearing this prop twice.

She’s a must bet with this line set below double-digits on Thursday.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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