Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Mercury-Lynx, Fever-Aces, Kelsey Mitchell)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Game 2 clashes in the WNBA Semifinals on Tuesday, Sept. 23.

Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is a great prop target in Game 2. / Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A pair of Game 2s in the WNBA Semifinals are set for Tuesday night, as the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury aim to even their respective series after losing Game 1 on Sunday.

The Aces were upset at home by the Indiana Fever behind a huge game from Kelsey Mitchell. Now, A’ja Wilson and company are in danger of being pushed to the brink before going on the road for Game 3 in this best-of-five series.

In the other semifinal matchup, the Minnesota Lynx erased a second-half deficit to win by double digits at home in Game 1.

Including the playoffs, the Lynx are a shocking 22-2 at Target Center this season. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’re favored at home in Game 2.

Meanwhile, oddsmakers have moved the spread in the Aces-Fever matchup for Game 2 — but not by much.

Vegas is still favored to even the series before Game 3 on Friday.

After going 1-for-2 in Sunday’s best bets, here’s where I’m leaning for the two Game 2s on Tuesday. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 79-80-2 (-3.08 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 163-156-2 (+1.37 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Phoenix Mercury-Minnesota Lynx UNDER 158.5 (-110)
• Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+105)
• Indiana Fever +9.5 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Phoenix Mercury-Minnesota Lynx UNDER 158.5 (-110)

The Mercury and Lynx both were top-five teams in the league in defensive rating in the regular season, and they fell short of this total in Game 1, combining for just 151 points. 

The Mercury are 4-for-4 this postseason in combining for less than 158.5 points, while the Lynx have done so in two of their three games.

Minnesota loves to slow the pace (10th in the WNBA during the regular season), and it has elite defenders across the board, including co-DPOY Alanna Smith. 

Meanwhile, the Mercury are one of the best UNDER teams in the WNBA, going 27-18-2 to the UNDER so far this season. 

These teams did not clear 158.5 combined points once in four regular-season meetings, so I’ll gladly take the UNDER once again in Game 2. 

Kelsey Mitchell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+105)

Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 26.0 points per game in four playoff games in 2025, and she’s knocked down three or more shots from beyond the arc in three of those contests.

Mitchell was 4-for-6 from deep in Game 1 against the Aces on her way to a 34-point showing. 

During the regular season, Mitchell shot 39.4 percent from 3 on 6.4 attempts per game, and her usage has only had to go up with Caitlin Clark out for the season. 

Mitchell has attempted at least six 3s in three playoff games in a row, and I expect a similar workload for the All-Star in Game 2.   

Indiana Fever +9.5 (-115) vs. Las Vegas Aces

Oddsmakers keep counting out the Fever, but at some point this price is going to change. It just so happens that Tuesday is not that day. 

So far in the postseason, Indiana is third in the WNBA in defensive rating and second in net rating (+7.8), outranking the Aces (+3.2). 

Even with Clark and others out of the lineup, Mitchell has stepped up all season long to show she’s one of the best players in the WNBA, and she did it again in Game 1. 

Las Vegas has been elite at home (19-6 overall) in 2025, but asking the Aces to win this game by 10 or more seems like a stretch in a semifinal playoff series. After all, the Aces – even with their lengthy winning streak in the second half of the season – finished the regular season with a net rating of +3.9 (behind the Fever at +4.5), and they’ve covered the spread in just 24 games this season. 

The Aces may end up evening the series, but I expect a much closer game than these odds suggest.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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