Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Napheesa Collier, Mercury-Liberty)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the WNBA playoff action on Wednesday, Sept. 17.

Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier is a great prop target in Game 2. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Favorites were 4-0 in the series openers of the WNBA playoffs on Sunday, but only one of those teams earned a road win.

The New York Liberty picked up a win over the Phoenix Mercury in overtime, covering as two-point favorites in the process.

Now, the defending champs have a chance to close things out at home in Game 2, where they were 17-5 straight up in the regular season.

Phoenix is hoping to bounce back with its veteran core of Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, but oddsmakers have the Mercury set as dogs in Game 2.

The second matchup in the WNBA on Wednesday is between the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx and the Golden State Valkyries. Minnesota dominated Game 1 with a 29-point win, and it’s favored once again in Game 2.

Can both WNBA Finals participants from last season (New York and Minnesota) advance to the semifinals with wins?

Here’s a look at my best bets for Wednesday night’s playoff action.

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 75-75-2 (-1.63 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 159-151-2 (+2.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• New York Liberty Moneyline (-155) vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 Points (+100)

New York Liberty Moneyline (-155) vs. Phoenix Mercury

This bet could end up being a risky one after Breanna Stewart went down with a knee injury in overtime in Game 1 (listed as a game-time decision for Game 2), but I’m trusting the Liberty and their infrastructure at home. 

New York was 17-5 at home in the regular season, posting a net rating of +12.1 – the second-best mark in the WNBA.

If Stewart sits, this line will move in favor of the Mercury, which is why I’m only taking the moneyline in this matchup.

The Mercury were just 12-10 on the road in the 2025 regular season, and they struggled offensively in Game 1 – which was my biggest concern for them in this series.

The defending champs did exactly what they needed to set up a clinching chance at home, and I think they take advantage on Wednesday. 

Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 Points (+100)

Napheesa Collier played just over 26 minutes in the Game 1 win over the Valkyries on Sunday, scoring 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting.

While Minnesota is set as a double-digit favorite once again on Wednesday, I do think there is an argument for an expanded role for Collier in what should be a closer game. The Valkyries were 14-8 at home in the regular season, and they have been one of the best teams in the W against the number in 2025.

The Lynx winning at home was a guarantee – they went 20-2 at home in the regular season – but I could see them having to fight a little more on the road on Wednesday.

That likely would mean more minutes for Collier, who has shot 15-for-21 in her last two games against Golden State. At this price, I think Collier’s a great bet to push her regular season average of 22.9 points per game. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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