Peter's Points: WNBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Sun vs. Valkyries on Monday)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the Connecticut Sun-Golden State Valkyries matchup on Monday, Aug. 11.

The Golden State Valkyries have been an UNDER machine in 2025. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Monday night’s WNBA action features a standalone game between the Golden State Valkyries and Connecticut Sun, and it has a ton of playoff implications for Golden State.

At 15-15, the Valkyries currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA, sitting just two games back of the No. 5 Indiana Fever.

With the Los Angeles Sparks beating the Seattle Storm on Sunday, the Valkyries are technically tied with them in the standings with both teams sitting at .500. Meanwhile, the Sparks are just a half game back of Golden State for the No. 8 seed.

As for the Sun — the worst team in the W — they’re coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday, although they did cover the spread, losing by just eight points.

This is a quick turnaround for Marina Mabrey and company as they search for just their sixth win of the 2025 season.

With just one game in W on Monday, I have a rather small WNBA best bets column today. Regardless, here’s how to bet on the Sun-Valkyries clash tonight. 

WNBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2025 season record: 47-55 (-4.28 units)
• OVERALL (since 2024 season): 131-130 (+0.18 units)

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

WNBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Golden State Valkyries-Connecticut Sun UNDER 157 (-110)

Golden State Valkyries-Connecticut Sun UNDER 157 (-110)

These teams played in late July in Connecticut, and the Sun dominated that game, winning 95-64.

There were 159 total points scored in that matchup – right around this total on Monday – and that came with CT having an unusually great offensive game.

The Sun currently rank dead last in:

• Offensive Rating (94.8)
• Defensive Rating (110.1)
• Net Rating (-15.3)
• Effective Field Goal Percentage (45.5%)
• True Shooting Percentage (50.4%)
• Assist Ratio (15.8)

They’re also second to last in the W in assist/turnover ratio this season. Simply put, this is a bad Sun team, and not one that we should expect will thrive on offense again. The Valkyries rank sixth in the W in defensive rating and second in opponent points per game, as they love to slow games down, playing at the slowest pace in the league.

Not only that, but Golden State’s offense has slipped to 10th in the W with Thornton out for the season, and the Valkyries have failed to crack 80 points in seven straight games.

During that seven-game stretch, they have cleared 157 points on just two occasions, a 31-point loss to the Sun and a 24-point loss to the Las Vegas Aces.

If this game ends up being a close one – or Golden State wins – it’s likely going to be low scoring. I’ll take the UNDER, which is 20-10 in the Valkyries' games this season, on Monday night. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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